Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/637230
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 7 FEBRUARY 2016 15 Until that alternative idea comes into being, ISIS will survive. Ulti- mately what I think you will need is a faith school of Sharia law, one that successfully reconciles Islam to the realities of 21st century life. This will not be a quick fix; this will be a multi-generational project." Another thing to bear in mind, he adds, is that ISIS is not in itself the problem. "It is only the most recent manifestation of a much deeper malaise. Just as ISIS sup- planted Al Qaeda, there will prob- ably be other organisations that will in time supplant ISIS. So it's not just a case of rolling back ISIS in Syria and Iraq, and the battle is won…" Winning the battle, he suggests, is more of a long-term project. Meanwhile, it is also a battle that is likely to be fought on our own doorstep. Micallef has already pointed towards a likely escalation of vio- lence in Libya. How does he see the situation developing in the near future? "I think the key to stabilising Libya is a unity government which can both reach out to the West, and also eradicate extremist/mili- tant organisations on the ground in order to establish some form of coherent political stability. That is not going to be an easy task. As things stand, we can't seem to even get to phase one, which is to form the unity government. There are now special forces from the United States, Italy, France, the UK, deployed or about to de- ploy in Libya… it's not entirely clear what they're actually doing: to what extent they are working with the Libyan armed forces, and to what extent they are op- erating independently. My guess is that they will end up having to do both. There are also clear signs that the U.S. has stepped up its drone operations over Libya…" If any form of air campaign is launched, people on the ground will also be needed. "For all prac- tical purposes, we are already in the beginning of that kind of op- eration. Will that be enough to bring the situation under control? Nobody really knows. I suspect not; it is likelier that Libya will continue to develop along the lines of Syria. A political solution is going to be extremely difficult. I think Libya will continue to be the mess that it is for some time…" This raises the issue of whether Western countries may in part be responsible for the situation, by aiding and abetting the over- throw of stable (if totalitarian) re- gimes in Muslim countries. Libya is a textbook example: when in- surgents rose against Gaddafi in 2011, they enjoyed the support of countries such as France and the UK. Could it be argued, then, that the 'short-termism' of Western democracies – which rarely tend to look beyond the next election – has helped create this long-term problem? "You cannot preclude the ap- plication of military force; but the reality is that it always should be the last resort, after all other means have been exhausted. It should not be the first course of action. I think that, in the West, we have created a very danger- ous conception of what warfare is like. War is a horrible, bloody business that puts men and wom- en in harm's way. Even if those men and women escape physical injury, they are often exposed to psychological damage that they may never overcome. You cannot prevent civilian deaths and inju- ries or the collateral damage that results from military operations. Yet we have managed to prom- ulgate the very dangerous con- cept that wars can be fought like some kind of ultra-realistic video game. You can remotely operate drones over Afghanistan or Iraq from nine to five… then go home and have dinner with the wife and kids. You have special forces which are perceived like some kind of 21st century 'supermen', who clean everything up within two or three weeks. There is a role for remotely operated instruments of war; there is a very important role for special forces too. But the reality is that you're not going to win wars with drones and special forces alone. You also need boots on the ground. And when you do that, the reality of what war- fare is changes completely. It is very dangerous to look at war as a quick, easy and inexpensive way to resolve issues." Nonetheless, war is very clearly upon us, whether we want it or not. "I think we are in a world war. I wouldn't call it the 'third world war', as that would imply a cer- tain continuity from the first two. This war is completely different, both in terms of root causes and in the way it will be fought. But it is a world war all the same; it is going to entail conventional mili- tary operations in various coun- tries. This is already happening; we are about to open up a third front in Libya, probably within a matter of weeks. But it is also a war in which every major city in the world is on the front line. It is essentially an asymmetric conflict that is being fought in both con- ventional and non-conventional military means. And it is being fought all over the world. Every police force in the world is now part of that conflict…" Interview Historian and author JOSEPH V. MICALLEF argues that the only thing that can defeat the Islamic State is a better idea coming from within the Muslim world is already lost You cannot defeat an idea with bombs or military force. The only thing that can defeat the idea of ISIS is a better idea IDEAS