Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/761508
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 11 DECEMBER 2016 12 M atteo Renzi, the 41-year-old premier whose political ascent was built on his reputation of being the "rottamattore" (the demolition man), himself presented a referendum on the Italian Constitution as a clear choice between change and "la casta" (the caste) – namely politicians who make a life-long career as parliamentarians in a country which has 630 MPs and 315 senators, all elected by universal suffrage and in various layers of local government. Renzi proposed to cut the number of senators by 200 – leaving just 100 senators nominated by the regions, and limiting their power to that of tweaking legislation passed by MPs. The referendum itself had nothing to say on Italy's membership of the eurozone or the European Union – a favourite punch- ing bag of Renzi who often lambasts the EU for its fiscal zeal and inertia on immigration. The Economist, which had opposed Brexit and supported Hillary Clinton for US presi- dent – considered by many as the mouth- piece of the global liberal elites – was une- quivocal in calling on the Italians to vote No, warning that a 'yes' victory in the referendum would have made it easier for the populist Beppe Grillo, who wants a referendum on the euro, to win power. The Economist warned Renzi has passed an electoral law for the Chamber that gives im- mense power to the winner of the next elec- tion. Had Italy removed its elected senate, the next prime minister would have had "an almost guaranteed mandate for five years". Judging by the names of those who mili- tated for the 'no' or 'yes', it is not easy whose vote was most pro-establishment. Surely Grillo's 5 star movement (M5S) and Matteo Salvini's far-right Lega Nord campaigned for the no. But so did Mario Monti, the former technocratic PM who replaced the elected Berlusconi in 2013, as well as former cen- tre-left prime minister Massimo D'Alema, a faction of the Democratic Party, the trade unions and the remnants of the far-left and Berlusoni himself. Eminent constitutionalists dominated the no campaign. On the yes side one could find the majority of Renzi's party and a chunk of defectors from Berlusconi's own party and leading businessmen, like the scandal-prone Flavio Briatore and FIAT's Sergio Mar- chionne. The result gave momentum to MS5 and the Lega, both of which campaigned for a no and hope to benefit from Renzi's demise. This does not mean the referendum split Ital- ians into two camps of anti-EU, anti-migrant populists pitted against a liberal, globalist elite – as happened with Brexit and Trump – but the result suggests a geographical divide with cities like Florence and Milan support- ing the reform, while the south overwhelm- ingly rejecting it by a 72% margin in Palermo and Sardinia. Renzi's high-stake gamble W hat led Italy to this impasse was Renzi's own ambition. Following an inconclusive electoral result which saw the centre-left led by Pier Luigi Bersani win a working majority in the chamber of deputies (in coalition with Sin- istra Ecologia Libertà) but not in the senate, Renzi worked his way to power, first by be- coming leader of the Democrats following Bersani's failure to rope in Grillos M5S into a left-wing government, and then by back- stabbing Enrico Letta – who was appointed prime minister in 2013 – after being uncer- emoniously dumped by Renzi's party in a palace coup. Ironically by rejecting Bersani's overtures to join him in a coalition, Grillo had a determin- ing role in Renzi's rise to power. What has always preoccupied Renzi was the fact that he lacked any popular legitimacy, having worked his way to power in the after- math of a general election in which he was not a candidate. To counter this perception, galvanised by a success in the European elec- tions in 2014, which gave his party 40% of the vote share, Renzi was determined to cement his power base by presenting himself as a re- former of a sclerotic political system. In power, allied with a group of renegades from Forza Italia led by Angelino Alfano, he managed to do what Berlusoni had wished but failed to do; reform Italy's labour laws, making it easier for employers to hire and fire workers through the Jobs Act and reforming the electoral law to give the party with the relative majority, an automatic majority in the Chamber of Deputies (the Italicum law). By doing so he attracted more defectors from Forza Italia, which political analysts inter- preted as the formation of a new national party attracting the support of moderates from both centre-right and centre-left. Yet it was Berlusconi – who after sending conciliatory messages to Renzi in the so- called "nazzareno pact" – ultimately denied him the required two-thirds majority for the constitutional reform aimed at drastically reducing the power of the senate. The only way out of this impasse was a confirmative referendum on the constitutional reform, ap- proved by a simple majority. It was at this juncture that Renzi raised the stakes: by turning a referendum on constitu- tional reforms into a referendum on himself, promising to resign if Italians turned down the reforms. This declaration, made at a time when he enjoyed greater popularity in the polls, had one inevitable consequence: setting in motion an alliance of all those who wanted Renzi removed, ranging from enemies in his own party, such as D'Alema (who represented the old establishment in the post-communist party) to the so-called anti establishment parties. Like David Cameron and his Brexit referen- dum, both men gambled their political future on referenda dictated by personal political calculations. For Cameron the Brexit refer- endum was the price he had to pay to buy the loyalty of eurosceptic right-wing MPs. For Renzi, the referendum was his way of getting the political legitimacy he lacked as Italy's unelected Prime Minister. Is Renzi history? B ut while David Cameron's resignation meant his definitive exit from the political scene, Renzi may well have other intentions. Surely he has kept his word by present- ing his resignation. He also gave a dignified Italy After Brexit and Trump… Has Matteo Renzi's loss in the Italian referendum written another chapter in a global 'anti-establishment' revolt that has already witnessed Brexit and Donald Trump elected US President? Renzi's political calculation may be that the 40% who voted "yes" provides him with a solid electoral base, which in the fragmented political landscape may well assure him of victory JAMES DEBONO If he persists in a bid to reclaim power… the result could be fatal, with the only alternative being Beppe Grillo or a reinvigorated centre-right, which increasingly depends on Matteo Salvini's (pictured below) RENZIXIT?