Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/832512
10 Repeat of 2013 result A gap of between 25,000 and 35,000 in Labour's favour would mean that any losses among switchers and Labour voters were compensated by gains from the PN Muscat Emboldened by such a result he may be strong enough to ignore Panamagate and its various ramifications. After managing to win convincingly despite retaining Konrad Mizzi as minister and Keith Schembri as chief of staff, he may well see this as confirmation that their permanence in office had no impact on the electorate. With the Opposition in shambles, he would have achieved the aim of the blitzkrieg election: vanquishing the opposition and making it regret adopting corrup- tion as its major issue. One major consideration is that Muscat has already indicated that he will only serve in office for 10 years. But boosted by another super- majority Muscat may choose to lead his party towards another victory in five years' time and perhaps resign after. And if that is the case – and his permanence in office is not upset by the pending judicial inquiries – he will have to start grooming a new leader in the next five years. Pending magisterial inquiries on Panama company Egrant and Keith Schembri may make his honeymoon a bit less agreeable but much depends on the results of these investigations. The most devastating scenario would be that in which the magistrate finds enough evidence that Muscat has lied on the ownership of Egrant. In such a scenario the legitimacy of the new government would be questioned and the country will be thrown in complete disarray. Moreover Muscat has already committed himself to resign if faced with such a scenario. A more tricky scenario for Muscat would be if the magistrate finds enough evidence for the commencement of a full in- vestigation on Muscat in the absence of conclusive evi- dence. But if Muscat is absolved on Egrant he would have even more ammunition to devastate the opposition by holding them accountable for fabricating evidence against him. This would further consolidate his hold on power. Emboldened by his super majority, Muscat will survive less dramatic scenarios, like being absolved on Egrant while his chief of staff is subjected to further investigations. Busuttil He will probably have no choice but to call it a day. Yet Busuttil himself may find a lifeline if pending mag- isterial inquiries vindicate his claims, but waiting for the outcome of these investigations may prove tricky. Expect the party to be thrown in disarray in a blame game, which could see the party relegated to the wil- derness. This would give carte blanche to the govern- ment to ride roughshod on all fronts. Expect the most unpopular and controversial meas- ures, such as the new local plans to be announced in the first year of Muscat's second legislature. But the elec- toral loss may give a future PN leader a carte blanche to reform the party. The question will be whether un- der a new leader the PN will continue on Busuttil's footsteps by further opening up to coalition-building based on good governance, or whether it will return to more tribal ways. If Marlene Farrugia or Godfrey Far- rugia fail miserably in the election, one would expect an abrupt end to the coalition. A landslide for Labour Labour may lose votes but still win with a convincing margin of say more than 15,000 votes but fewer than 25,000 votes. This would still have meant a shift of a considerable number of voters who opted for Labour in 2013 but not enough to endanger the solid majority. Anything above 20,000 would further strengthen Muscat's hand and further weaken Busuttil's staying chances Muscat By Maltese standards of close electoral results and in view of the very serious allegations levelled against Muscat and his inner circle, this will be seen as a strong affirmation for Muscat. But if the 20K mark is not surpassed, it would come with a couple of warning signs. Muscat will still be vulnerable to any negative findings in the magisterial inquiries related to his chief of staff and Egrant. He may still interpret the result as a vindication of his lack of action on Panamagate and a blank cheque to continue governing in the same way but he would do this at his own peril. So Muscat may consider sending a mes- sage to the electorate by not reappointing Schembri and Mizzi. Muscat may also have to start grooming the next party leader but if he survives pending judicial inquiries, he will most likely lead the party towards the 2022 elec- tion, in the knowledge that a third consecutive victory is well within his reach. Busuttil The PN leader may find consolation in narrowing the gap between the parties and possibly increasing parlia- mentary representation. A loss of under 20,000 votes would still represent a considerable shift towards the PN. A 16,000-18,000 votes loss would mean that Busuttil would have managed to halve Labour's 2013 gap. But his position as party leader will become increasingly unten- able if he loses by more than 20,000 votes. Factions in the party may start considering him un- electable for the crucial 2022 appointment. In such a scenario Busuttil may well call it a day, consoling himself in having re-energised the party's core base and making limited gains. A loss of between 15,000 and 20,000 votes will be the trickiest scenario for Busuttil. For he would have lost with a big enough margin to disappoint PN vot- ers, while still having made significant inroads in the PL vote. Moreover Busuttil himself may be vulnerable if the Egrant inquiry finds no wrongdoing on the PM's part but any finding to the contrary may reinforce Busuttil. A normal victory Labour wins by between 10,000 and 15,000 votes. Although by Maltese standards this can be seen as a landslide, one has to compare this result to that of 2013. This would be a clear indication that up to 12,000 PL voters have switched to the PN. In a normal election such a shift would have resulted in a change of government. Labour would have won simply because the gap in 2013 was too big to close Muscat The Prime Minister would emerge victorious but he would have received a clear message that Panamagate has seriously weakened him. If followed by any negative news maltatoday, SUNDAY, 4 JUNE 2017 News JAMES DEBONO QUOTA Name Party 1 2 3 GRECH MINTOFF Ivan AB _______________________________ CASSAR Marc'Andrea AD _______________________________ AQUILINA Joseph Ind _______________________________ BORG Simon MPM _______________________________ BATTISTINO Henry MPM _______________________________ FARRUGIA Aaron PL _______________________________ DEBATTISTA Deo PL _______________________________ BUSUTTIL Luciano PL _______________________________ ATTARD Joseph Matthew PL _______________________________ PARNIS Silvio PL _______________________________ CILIA Joe PL _______________________________ HERRERA Jose PL _______________________________ STIVALA Carlo PN _______________________________ SAMMUT HILI Davina PN _______________________________ TORPIANO Edward PN _______________________________ DE MARCO Mario PN _______________________________ BUGEJA Ray PN _______________________________ MIFSUD BONNICI Paula PN _______________________________ BUTTIGIEG Anthony PN _______________________________ SCHEMBRI Justin PN _______________________________ SCIBERRAS Liam PN _______________________________ GRECH Claudio PN _______________________________ FARRUGIA Herman PN _______________________________ 1 Valletta, Floriana, Hamrun, Marsa, Pietà, Gwardamangia, Santa Venera 3 Zejtun, Ghaxaq, Marsaskala, Marsaxlokk QUOTA Name Party 1 2 3 MALLIA Mario AD ______________________________ MIZZI Christian AD ______________________________ DARMANIN Alexander MPM ______________________________ MEGALLY Naged MPM ______________________________ SCICLUNA Norman MPM ______________________________ ABELA Carmelo [Charlie] PL ______________________________ AGIUS Chris PL ______________________________ BEDINGFIELD Glenn PL ______________________________ BUONTEMPO Stefan PL ______________________________ CAMILLERI Byron PL ______________________________ CAUSON Mark PL ______________________________ DALLI Helena PL ______________________________ DEBATTISTA Deo PL ______________________________ MIZZI Joe PL ______________________________ MUSCAT Joseph PL ______________________________ BARTOLO Ivan PN ______________________________ BEZZINA Malcolm PN ______________________________ BEZZINA Mary PN ______________________________ BONELLO Charles PN ______________________________ BORG Doris PN ______________________________ CASSAR Kevin PN ______________________________ CUTAJAR Errol PN ______________________________ MICALLEF Angelo PN ______________________________ MUSCAT Joseph [Josie] PN ______________________________ SPITERI Stephen PN ______________________________ TEELING Ruben PN ______________________________ ZAMMIT Jason PN ______________________________ 2 Birgu, Isla, Bormla, Zabbar, St Peter's, Fgura (part of), Kalkara, Xghajra QUOTA Name Party 1 2 3 MIZZI Christian AD ______________________________ BONNICI Nazzareno IND ______________________________ BORG DUCA Graziella MPM ______________________________ DARMANIN Alexander MPM ______________________________ ABELA Carmelo [Charlie] PL ______________________________ AGIUS Chris PL ______________________________ BONNICI Owen PL ______________________________ CALLEJA Mario PL ______________________________ DALLI Helena PL ______________________________ FEARNE Chris PL ______________________________ GRECH Etienne PL ______________________________ GRIXTI Silvio PL ______________________________ MICALLEF Edric PL ______________________________ MICALLEF Jean Claude PL ______________________________ MIZZI Joe PL ______________________________ MIZZI Marion PL ______________________________ MUSCAT Sebastian [Bastjan] PL ______________________________ SPITERI Kenneth PL ______________________________ ABELA Amanda PN ______________________________ BEZZINA Mary PN ______________________________ CAMILLERI John Baptist PN ______________________________ CARUANA Raymond [Furtu] PN ______________________________ CASSAR Charlot PN ______________________________ CHETCUTI Janice PN ______________________________ CUTAJAR Errol PN ______________________________ FARRUGIA Catherine PN ______________________________ GALEA Mario PN ______________________________ MIFSUD BONNICI Carm PN ______________________________ MUSCAT Joseph [Josie] PN ______________________________ RIZZO NAUDI Mario PN ______________________________ SPITERI Stephen PN ______________________________ ZAMMIT Jason PN ______________________________ Post-election scenarios: Polls show Labour likely to retain a majority, but Joseph Muscat's and Simon Busuttil's fortunes depend on the size of the gap between the two parties when compared to 2013. Here are five scenarios for today's prospects