Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/943656
8 News maltatoday SUNDAY 18 FEBRUARY 2018 Italy elections THE Maltese anti-migration bri- gade, clamouring for the Northern League's Matteo Salvini may be in for a big surprise. For their hero's victory may well result in the ar- rival of boatloads of migrants to Malta after a five-year lull where a decision of governments led by the Democratic Party meant Italy opted to take responsibility for migrants rescued in the vicinity of Malta. Underlying the rise of xeno- phobes like Salvini is the failure of the Italian left to allay popular concerns, fed by constant me- dia reports linking migration to crime. The timid political reac- tion by the political mainstream to a punitive mass shooting against migrants in Macerata by Luca Traini, a former Northern League local council candidate, has exposed the weakness of the political establishment in the face of populist anger. Centre-right leader Silvio Ber- lusconi has dismissed the shooting as an act of non-political madness while Matteo Renzi whose par- ty's office was also a target in the shootout, while describing the in- cident as a racist one, was careful in underlining that it was a "crimi- nal" and not a "terrorist" act. The lethal concoction of long standing anger against the "politi- cal caste" and concern on immi- gration and crime which dominate the airwaves, have created a fertile ground for xenophobic anti-sys- tem parties. Added to this is the enduring appeal of 82-year-old Silvio Ber- lusconi, a self-made millionaire who survived countless accusa- tions and a number of convictions for corruption, fraud and impro- priety. This in itself is a cautionary tale on voters' readiness to absolve charismatic politicians from cor- ruption allegations. Berlusconi's political acumen is once again evident in him play- ing two apparently contradictory cards: posing as the only moderate politician who can stop the 5 Star Movement (M5S) from winning, while allying himself with the hard right. He may now win either as the architect of a renewed coali- tion between the far-right and the mainstream right, or as the enabler of a coalition of moderates with Matteo Renzi's PD which ex- cludes populist parties. Renzi's fall from grace On the other hand former Italian PM Matteo Renzi, the man tipped to win the moderate vote from Berlusconi after snatching 40% in MEP elections in 2014 – which precipitated a palace coup – is now being punished by his own old guard whose wrath he openly provoked. He is also being shunned by vot- ers who feel more insecure after the approval of the Jobs Act, a re- form meant to create new jobs by making it easier for employers to fire workers. "The Partito Democratico and its allies have strongly been weak- ened by Matteo Renzi's prima donna attitude, his arrogant and divisive style, and his shift to a pro-business centrist policy, that has caused a significant split in the party, with Bersani, Grasso and Boldrini's left-leaning 'Liberi e Uguali' polling around 7% in the polls at the moment," notes the former Alternattiva Demokratika chairman – and also a former Ital- ian MP – Arnold Cassola. Yet Renzi may still have a life- line: a post-electoral coalition led by the moderate Antonio Tajani, the man identified by Berlusconi for the post of premier. Over the past weeks the PD, mostly thanks to its alliance with Emma Bonino, has managed to carve out its iden- tity as a Europeanist force. Aaron Farrugia, the parliamen- tary secretary in the ministry for European affairs, says the PD is making some headway "by seeking to emulate French President Em- manuel Macron", who also stood for an open society in contrast to the inward looking National Front. Who are the contenders? The election is a three-way race between the centre right coali- tion led by media mogul Silvio Berlusconi, the centre-left coali- tion led by Matteo Renzi and the Five Star movement led by Luigi Di Maio. While the centre-left dominated by the mainstream Democratic Party is more homogenous and offers a prospect of stability, the centre-right is more diverse as it includes the xenophobic and post- fascist right, carrying the risk that it may break up after the election. Unlike Romano Prodi's Unione coalition, the new centre-left coa- lition has renounced on any alli- ance with more left-wing elements which have now regrouped in the 'Free and Equal' grouping led by former magistrate Pietro Grasso, now scoring 6% in the polls. This division could cost Renzi his vic- tory. The PD's only significant ally is the liberal outfit More Europe, led by civil rights campaigner Emma Bonino that is scoring 3% on a pro-European and anti-xen- ophobic platform. The other two platforms, the green-socialist To- gether for Italy and the Christian- democratic Civic Platform barely scrape 1% together. On the other hand Forza Italia, a member of the European Popular Party, is polling just three points above Matteo Salvini's Northern League which is more akin to the French National Front, and has replaced northern separatism as its central plank with an anti-im- migrant and eurosceptic rhetoric. The centre-right coalition in- cludes Brothers of Italy, which inherits the post-fascist mantle from the National Alliance. The fact that Berlusconi, who can't directly contest the election be- cause of a tax fraud conviction, has indicated the moderate Anto- nio Tajani (presently president of European Parliament) as his pre- ferred choice as Prime Minister, may spell trouble for the coalition. Yet Forza Italia has managed to govern with both the North- ern League and post-fascist par- ties in the past, while left-wing g o v e r n m e n t s never managed to reconcile differences between the far left and social democracy. This time round the balance of power in the centre-right has clearly shifted to the far right. And this shows that while the left cannot win without the far left, past experience also shows they cannot govern together. The Five Star Movement found- ed by maverick comedian Beppe Grillo is now led by the more re- spectable Luigi di Maio. The M5S defies ideological stereotypes by appealing to voters of all hues who are fed up by past governments of both left and right. To appeal to right-wing voters, the movement has become more ambivalent on migration, opposing the granting of citizenship to people born in It- aly as proposed by the centre-left. But its track record in local gov- ernment, particularly in Rome, has also dispelled its image of in- corruptibility. What are they promising? Silvio Berlusconi's central plank is a 23% flat tax rate, which would mean rich and poor paying the same tax rate. Matteo Salvini wants to repatri- ate 100,000 migrants in his first All made-up: Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia is leading a centre-right coalition with far-right parties No clear victor may be Malta's best hope A decision by Italy's centre-left government to take responsibility for migrants rescued on rickety boats crossing the central Mediterranean route eased Malta's migration pains. But in a climate of growing racism, Italians will be electing a new government which may well veer to the right. What is in store for Italy and for Malta? The smile of the far-right: Lega Nord leader Matteo Salvini JAMES DEBONO JAMES DEBONO