Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/950286
maltatoday WEDNESDAY 7 MARCH 2018 NEWS JAMES DEBONO FORMER foreign minister George Vella and former home affairs minister, Car- melo Mifsud Bonnici, warn of a long period of political uncertainty in Italy after elections produced no clear ma- jority despite a strong performance by anti-immigrant Lega and the populist 5-Star Movement. As home affairs minister between 2008 and 2013 Carmelo Mifsud Bonnici faced Lega Nord's Roberto Maroni on various occasions when Italy refused to accept migrants rescued in Malta's Search and Rescue Area. According to Mifsud Bon- nici the immediate risk to Malta is now posed by prolonged political instability. Mifsud Bonnici, who presently serves as the PN's spokesperson on foreign affairs, warns that in the absence of a stable gov- ernment, decisions on sensitive issues like migration will be taken by the Guardia di Finanza and the bureaucracy. Such a situ- ation may last for weeks and even months. "In the absence of political guidance, these officials will be more wary of tak- ing decisions which could steer political controversy and provoke a reaction from populist parties." Mifsud Bonnici fears that these officials may be less likely to take in immigrants rescued in the vicinity of Malta. Vella, who also foresees a long period of uncertainty, sees immigration as the main stumbling block in Malta's relationship with an Italian government potentially led by the populist forces which emerged as the main winners of the election. While he expects no changes in Malta's relationship with Italy when it comes to trade and everyday diplomacy, he is doubtful whether a government led by any of the two populist parties will show the same goodwill towards Malta as the centre-left governments of the past five years. "Given that immigration was one of the issues which dominated the campaign of both Matteo Salvini's Lega and the 5-Star Movement, one expects a more hardline position if these parties form the next government." Yet Vella insists that much depends on who will be forming the next government which could also include politicians from other parties with less hawkish positions. Vella fondly recalls his friendly rela- tionship with foreign Ministers Emma Bonino, Federica Mogherini and Paolo Gentiloni. He also recalls the first meeting between former PM Matteo Renzi and Joseph Muscat and how they clicked immedi- ately. He categorically denies speculation that there was a secret agreement through which Italy took migrants recued near Malta in exchange of other concessions. "I swear that this was not the case… Un- der Enrico Letta the Italians took the de- cision to stop arguing over saving human lives and showed appreciation for Malta's role in rescuing migrants in the open sea….they did establish guidelines which included Malta taking the corpses of dead migrants." But irrespective of who forms the next Italian government Vella is optimistic that some sort of rapport can be established even with politicians like Salvini. "I had established a good relationship with three different Italian ministers". He acknowledged that this was facilitated by the fact that they hailed from the same parliamentary majority but common in- terests have to prevail. Carmelo Mifsud Bonnici notes that apart from migration, Malta and Italy often sustain each other's position at EU level. "Larger countries sometimes need to hide behind smaller countries in advanc- ing their agenda and vice-versa". Both former ministers expect weeks of political uncertainty before a new Italian government is formed – something which is bound to have an impact on the whole European union. "President Sergio Matarella has a hard task in front of him," says Vella. In such circumstances nothing can be excluded and parties may well renege past commit- ments not to ally themselves with other parties. "Even in Germany the SPD had to re- nounce Martin Schulz's commitment not to ally himself with the CDU." He notes there is already talk of some MPs from the Democratic Party back- ing the 5-Star Movement. On his part Carmelo Mifsud Bonnici fears a "stalemate" with neither the 5-Star Movement nor the Lega being able to find the numbers to form a gov- ernment. "I sincerely believe that Matarella should first ask Luigi Di Maio to form a government as he leads Italy's larg- est party but I doubt he will have the numbers." Mifsud Bonnici describes Silvio Ber- lusconi as "the greatest loser" in the election and doubts whether his alli- ance with the Lega will endure. Asked whether a new election is in- evitable, Mifsud Bonnici thinks that at least six months will have to pass be- fore that. Prolonged Italian uncertainty may send migration shivers – former ministers SEE ALSO: Page 9 | EDITORIAL • Pages 6 & 7 | ANALYSIS ON THE OUTCOME OF THE ITALIAN ELECTION AND POSSIBLE SCENARIOS George Vella Carm Mifsud Bonnici