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maltatoday WEDNESDAY 7 MARCH 2018 News 7 A 5-Star-led minority government If the centre right led by Sal- vini fails at forming a govern- ment, the President will have no choice but to ask the 5-Star Movement to form a govern- ment. One possibility is an agreement with the Democrat- ic Party based on those areas where the parties converge. Yet this is unlikely simply because such an arrangement would be a double humiliation for the PD; having first lost the elec- tion only to end up serving as the junior partners of their populist adversaries. Still it is also clear that the 5-Star Move- ment has absorbed in itself a segment of left-wing voters. This suggests that convergence on some issues is not impos- sible. While any convergence with the 5-Star Movement was completely excluded by Matteo Renzi, his demise may lead to a change of mind in the party. Renzi's decision to stay on as party leader until a new gov- ernment is formed may be an attempt to stop an alliance with the 5-Star Movement from happening. A Lega-5-Star Movement government This may well be Vladimir Putin's wet dream and the Eu- ropean Commission's worst nightmare but the prospect remains very unlikely, for the simple reason that the North- ern League would have to sacri- fice its leadership of the centre right to become junior partners of an ideologically ambiguous party. Yet the convergence between the anti-system parties, namely the Northern League and the 5-Star Movement, may be al- luring for the more Eurosceptic and post-ideological elements in both parties. The two parties enjoy the combined support of 50% of the Italian electorate compared to the 33% support enjoyed by the two moderate parties on the left and right. But it is unlikely for the Lega to betray its allies simply to prop up a 5-Star government. Hav- ing achieved so much, it is un- likely for Salvini to throw away the goodwill invested in him by his centrist allies to elope with the Grillini, for the Lega owes its successful cooperation at re- gional and local level with more moderate forces. Although the 5-Star Move- ment have allied themselves with Nigel Farage's UKIP in the European parliament, they of- ten vote along parties to the left of the spectrum on most issues. Yet the latent threat of such a government may give the two parties greater leverage in their dealings with the centrist par- ties. A national government One possible scenario is that of appointing a temporary gov- ernment with one main task; an electoral law which includes a majority price for the coalition winning a relative majority of votes – a reform once supported by Renzi's PD and which could make Matteo Salvini PM. But while the centre right may be eager for such a reform, the 5-Star Movement would see this as another attempt to keep them away from power. This may in turn strengthen their appeal as an anti-establishment party. Yet another election If no government is formed a new election would be inevita- ble but with the electoral sys- tem remaining the same, there is a great chance that a second election will not produce a clear winner. What the election means for Malta The demise of the centre left in Italy means that Muscat has been deprived of a key political ally in Europe. Matteo Renzi had even addressed a mass meeting at the granaries on the eve of Maltese general elections in 2017. Moreover, after Salvini's suc- cess in last Sunday's elections, it will be more difficult for any Italian government to continue taking all migrants rescued in Malta's search and rescue zone. Neither will Muscat find an interlocutor like Antonio Ta- jani with whom he already has a good rapport. Instead Muscat will face the unknown. The result also excludes a grand coalition in which the Maltese government may have PD interlocutors. While an outright victory for a centre right led by Sal- vini may have been even more catastrophic for Malta than an election with no clear victors, Maltese diplomacy may have to start building bridges with the populist forces. Any government with the in- volvement of the 5-Star Move- ment may take a more antago- nistic approach towards the Maltese government. The Senator of the 5-Star Movement, Mario Michele Giarruso, had asked for Joseph Muscat's government's resig- nation following the murder of journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia. The 5-Star Movement is also very critical of the Azeri TAP pipeline, which links the cen- tral Asian republic, Turkey and Greece to the Italian region of Puglia. jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt Understanding Italy's earthquake Key demographic facts • 47% of voters in Lombardy voted for centre right • 48% of voters in Sicily voted for the 5-Star Movement • 32% of voters in Veneto voted Lega, 11% for Forza Italia • 5% of Sicilian voters voted Lega • Tuscany and Trentino are the only regions where centre left has a majority • 5-Star Movement dominates Italy from Abruzzo down (Lazio excluded) • Centre right dominates Italy from Lazio to the north • (Tuscany and Trentino excluded) • 44% under 30-year-olds voted for the 5-Star Movement • 19% of over 64-year-olds voted for 5-Star Movement • At 26% PD remains strongest party among over 64-year-olds • 17% of PD voters in 2014 European elections defected to 5-Star Movement, 16% did not vote Matteo Renzi SEE ALSO: Page 9 EDITORIAL Back Page GEORGE VELLA AND CARM MIFSUD BONNICI ON ITALIAN ELECTION RESULTS