Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1040165
maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 17 OCTOBER 2018 7 MEWS ANALYSIS JAMES DEBONO ELECTIONS in Bavaria are a lesson to mainstream parties who try to ape the far right in order to stop its advance. The mainstream centre-right Chris- tian Social Union did exactly that. Not only have they not stopped the far right from taking their first seats in the state legislature but they have also lost 200,000 votes to the Green Par- ty, which found a new appeal among church-going civic minded conserva- tives. Bavaria is a rich and relatively so- cially conservative German region long dominated by the Christian So- cial Union, a party which at national level co-operates with the more cen- trist Christian Democratic Union, often acting as its more conservative counterweight. Angela Merkel's decision to allow a million Syrian refugees to enter Ger- many and the subsequent rise of the xenophobic AFD (Alternative for Germany) put the CSU in a quandary, on how to stop the drift to the right. The result of this was an attempt to lure voters away from the far right by coopting some of their ideas. One highly symbolic measure was that of putting back crucifixes in pub- lic buildings. "The cross is a fundamental sym- bol of our Bavarian identity and way of life," said Bavaria's chief minister Markus Söder, as he hung a cross in the lobby of the state government's headquarters in Munich, directly after the rule was passed. But this decision was met with deri- sion among Catholic church leaders like Cardinal Reinhard Marx who re- torted; "If the cross is just seen as a cultural symbol, then it has not been understood… The cross was a sign of opposition to violence, injustice, sin and death but not a sign against other people". Not surprisingly many civic minded Bavarian Catholics, especially those involved in voluntary organisations, found refuge in the German Greens who in some ways give a new meaning to the word "conservative" by empha- sising the need to protect nature and the planet which is in line with Papal encyclicals. Polls suggest that the CSU lost more votes to the Greens (200,000) than to the far right (180,000). Although rooted in the 1968 students' revolt, the Greens now stand for fiscal re- sponsibility and for more European integration. In Bavaria the Greens once considered a far-left outfit, at- tracted almost as many votes from CSU (200,000) as from SPD (210,000). It is not a surprise that with the So- cialists in terminal decline, the Greens are increasingly seen as the CDU's most likely coalition partner at na- tional level. This may well serve as a warning to other Christian Democratic parties, like Adrian Delia's PN, who in recent months have been trying to pander to xenophobic instincts by emphasising issues related to the defence of local identity and vaguely decrying the in- crease of foreign workers. So far, the PN does not face competi- tion from an outfit similar to the Ger- man Greens who tend to appeal to the educated middle class and are in them- selves a product of a more prosperous society where environmental issues take more prominence. Yet even in Malta, which is experiencing a differ- ent kind of boom, one is seeing signs of civic-minded opposition to unbridled growth, which may with time evolve and aspire to political representation. One lesson for third party politicians in Malta who either tend to be isola- tionist or too anchored on one side of the spectrum is the flexibility of the German Greens who presently govern three German regions along with the CDU, one region with the CDU and SPD, two regions with the SPD and the left, one region with the SPD and the Liberals and two regions with the SPD and no one else. Despite having a strong identity on the left side of the spectrum, the Greens have shown a remarkable abil- ity to work with all political parties except for the extreme right. While the Greens in Malta face a more difficult electoral system especially at national level, they may have something to learn from the ability of the German Greens to grow at local level. Socialists in free fall The Bavarian elections along with similar results in Belgian local elec- tions and in Luxembourg were a clear indication that the European Socialists are in free fall. In all three elections the Greens have surpassed or have been close to dis- place the Socialists as the main force on the centre left. Only Spain and Por- tugal, where the Socialists govern with the more radical left-wing movements like Podemos and the left block, seem to be defying the trend. The other exception is Malta where Labour enjoys an insurmountable lead but this may well be a result of its abil- ity to reinvent itself as Malta's pro-busi- ness party while retaining its hold on its traditional working-class base through cash transfers funded by new sources of income like the IIP and through an in- crease in the tax base by attracting more foreign workers, instead of raising taxes. Yet this balancing act is pregnant with contradictions, which may sur- face in the coming years. The collapse of the German Social Democrats may also spur Muscat to search for new European allies among the Liberals, especially if he is still interested in a top EU position. The rise of the German Greens, espe- cially if they get back in to the national government, may also spell bad news for Muscat, as this will strengthen those elements in Europe who support in- creased harmonisation of tax policies. Bavarian lessons When aping the far right backfires How Bavaria's landscape changed 2013 Difference since 2013 CSU 37.2 -11 Greens 17.5 +9 SPD 9.7 -11 AFD 10.2 +10 Independents 11.6 +3 FDP 5.1 +2