Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1115758
15 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 12 MAY 2019 NEWS Step 1: Eligible voters There are 371,625 Maltese peo- ple aged 16 and over registered as voters for the European Parlia- ment election. These include EU citizens in Malta who will vote here. Given that the May election is for the European Parliament, EU citizens in Malta can also vote. The number of EU citizens regis- tered to vote is 18,160. Step 2: Basis on which EP vote is projected For the purpose of this exer- cise, the EP election result is be- ing modelled on the findings of the May MaltaToday survey. The numbers in the brackets repre- sent the change over the April results. The raw MT survey results produced the following relevant numbers: No vote: 9.8% (-4); Don't know: 12.4% (-4.9); No answer: 1.8% (-0.1); PL: 44.1% (+2.3); PN: 29% (+3.8); Others: 3% (+3) If the people who did not de- clare a voting intention are re- moved from the equation, the projected results for the political parties would be: PL: 58% (-4.4); PN: 38.1% (+0.5); Others: 4% (+4) Step 3: Key assumptions Those who said they will not vote, are unsure and did not an- swer – a total of 24% (-9) – will stay at home on 25 May. This gives a turnout of 76% (+9), which is equivalent to the turn- out of 75% in the last EP election of 2014. It is assumed that from those who turn out to vote, 98% will cast a valid vote. This percentage is based on the last EP election in 2014. These figures will give a nation- al quota of 39,541 votes, which is the number a candidate has to reach to get elected. In the March projection, the quota was estab- lished at 36,744 votes. The quota is calculated by di- viding the number of valid votes cast by seven (one more than the number of seats that have to be elected), plus one. Eligible voters: 371,625 Turnout at 76% 282,435 Valid votes cast 98%: 276,786 Quota to get elected: 39,541 Step 4: Projected seats in May 2019 The projected results obtained by the political parties in the MT survey are used to calculate the projected number of votes they could be ex- pected to receive in the election. This is worked as a percentage of valid votes cast. The votes projected for each party are divided by the quota to deter- mine how many quotas the party is expected to have totted up at the first count. This is indicative of the number of seats that are likely to go the party's way. MEP 2019 (MT May survey) Party Vote share Votes Quotas Projected seats PL 58% 160,536 4.06 4 PN 38.1% 105,455 2.67 2 Others 4% 11,071 0.28 0 MEP 2019 (MT April survey) Party Vote share Votes Quotas Projected seats PL 62.4% 151,450 4.37 4 PN 37.6% 91,258 2.63 2 Others 0% 0 0 0 The results of the 2014 MEP election show how the number of projected seats the parties started with at the first count was a good reflection of how they eventually ended up. The quota in 2014 was 35,979. MEP 2014 Party Vote share Votes Quotas Actual seats PL 53.4% 134,462 3.74 3 PN 40% 100,785 2.80 3 Others 6.6% 16,604 0.46 0 The Projection