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maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 11 DECEMBER 2019 7 NEWS ANALYSIS Malta's least partisan (and more confused) voters are young MATTHEW VELLA ONE of the less spoken about cohorts in the MaltaToday survey tends to be people who say they don't know who to vote for, or who say they will not vote. At such unprecedented times in Malta's po- litical history, there is a tendency to lose faith in parties and leaders, especially given the har- rowing events the nation has had to come to terms with these past weeks. But who are exactly the people who say they do not want to vote in an election, or who don't know which party to vote for? An interesting comparison between our No- vember and December surveys offers interest- ing insights. In November, 17.5% of respondents said they would not vote had an election to be held the day after. This reflects a state of mind which seldom or never happens in actual elections, where Malta has high participatory rates, but it is indicative of a mood of disillusionment. But breaking down these respondents reveals a clear pattern: in the main, these voters have tended to be only slightly more PN-inclined than Labour (13.7% versus 10.4%), typically younger voters aged 18-35 (27.4%) but also 36-50 (23.3%), overwhelmingly university- educated (31%), and usually living in harbour area towns, both north and south (43.4%). Those who said they were unsure about whom to vote for were definitely more PN- inclined (11.8% as opposed to PL voters, 4.8%), aged 18-35 (15%), university-educated (18.2%), and probably living in Malta's north- ern and western regions. At first glance, Malta's most unsure voters and probably the least partisan are its crop of young and tertiary-educated voters… a prom- ising sign of critical reflection on the state of Maltese democracy. This data has to be read with caution given that it is a subset and with a higher margin of error than the full sample. However, it does give an insight into societal thinking. What happened this week when we polled people in the aftermath of the Yorgen Fenech arrest and the Joseph Muscat resignation? The 'will not vote' fell slightly by just under two points, but it was more pronounced in those who voted PN in 2017 (16.7%) than La- bour (7.1%). Again, it was highly pronounced among younger voters aged 18-35 (24.6%) and 36-50 (22.9%), the university-educated (23%), and those living in the north. The 'don't knows' increased to 11.3% over November (8.6%), again mostly PN-inclined (12.8% versus PL 7.3%), mainly university- educated (23.8%) but this time a different age and regional pattern emerged: an increase in 65-year-old voters, rising to 13%, simi- lar to the younger cohorts (18-35 and 36-50 both roughly at 12-13%), and mainly Gozitan (23.8%). This happened against a backdrop of a slight drop in the Labour vote (44% to 43%) and just a minor increase for the PN (26.9% to 27.6%). Which means, these voters might not find a natural home inside the opposition PN. What is clear is that these changes have not benefited third parties like the far-right (which is predominantly male, older, lives in the south-eastern region), and only slightly shifted support to the Greens, which have wider demographic appeal than the Demo- cratic Party, whose make-up is distinctly young, PN-inclined, and limited to the north and northern harbour. populist right-wing parties led by strong men politicians. But in contrast to Malta, in most other EU countries uni- versity educated people tend to gravitate towards the centre- left including progressive out- fits like the greens. In this, Labour was crippled both by the latent conservatism of the Maltese middle class but also by its thuggish behaviour while in office in the 1980s. Since Muscat took over, La- bour did make inroads among more educated voters while retaining a hold on other cat- egories of voters. But the latest events may have reversed the trend. This may be dangerous for Labour because the sentiment may filter across to other socio and economic groups, includ- ing Labour-inclined middle class voters who could start ex- pressing misgivings. Muscat knew this too well when he actively sought the consent of agenda setters with a liberal agenda before the 2013 election. Yet his ultimate legacy may well be the undoing of this major breakthrough. The divergent views ex- pressed by tertiary educated re- spondents in contrast with the rest of the population exposes the limits in the influence of both the media and civil soci- ety organisations, which may be greater among the univer- sity educated cohort but more negligible among those with a lower level of education. The referendum on Spring hunting which saw all the in- dependent media and civil society unite against the hunt- ing lobby had already exposed these limits. What happened to the eru- dite Labourites? But the survey suggests that university educated Labour voters have been impacted by the latest events, with party support among this co- hort dropping by nearly three points in the space of a month. Although the drop is not dramatic and may reflect the margin of error of the surveys, it contrasts with Labour's hold in other educational groups. Moreover, the PL has now been overtaken by the PN in this category. This suggests that despite their misgivings on Adrian Delia, a segment of university educated PN voters have returned to the fold. This has not been the case in all other educational groups, where the PN actually loses support. While last month Labour had a nine-point advantage among the university educated, the PN now leads by seven points. The decline in support for Labour among the tertiary educated is even more striking when the latest voting inten- tion results are compared to a survey carried out by MaltaTo- day before the MEP elections in May. Back then Labour enjoyed the support of 43% of the univer- sity educated. The support has now dropped to 28%, a sharp decline of 18 points since May. But Labour has retained its advantage in all other educa- tional categories. This may be an indication that Labour's fall is being cush- ioned by the lack of political alternatives. When asked who they will vote for, people do not simply vote against a party but also for who they want to govern the country. The current state of the PN, torn by divisions and crippled by a weak talent pool, does not make it a viable choice for many. And even among the tertiary educated nearly 40% are undecided or won't even vote. The weakness of third parties to tap in the strong desire for change in civil society is also a factor. So is the absence of a strong political alternative to Labour from the left, which is able to communicate with the masses through a populist message such as Podemos did in Spain. For one may ask; what prom- ise of change in living condi- tions is being offered to those suffering in isolation in times of plenty? In the absence of credible op- positions, it is not surprising that Labour retains, even in these unprecedented and des- perate times, its support. CAREER OPPORTUNITY Team Manager (Data Harmonisation and Standardisation) This call invites candidates to submit their interest in the post of Team Manager responsible for Data Harmonisation and Standardisation in relation to geospatial data and compliance with EU Directives. The person is required to have: Qualifications: Bachelor's Degree recognized by the NCFHE (MQF Level 6) in GIS/IT Systems or an area with a significant content of GIS/IT. 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Interested candidates are advised to submit their application, together with a detailed curriculum vitae via email on email address: jobapplications@pa.org.mt or The Human Resources Manager Planning Authority Ref: Team Manager (Data Harmonisation and Standardisation) Jobsplus Permit No. 872/2019 For further information visit our website https://www.pa.org.mt/en/vacancies Closing Date: Tuesday 17th December 2019 JOIN OUR TEAM www.pa.org.mt PLANNING AUTHORITY The survey has exposeds a sharp divide between those with a university education and the rest of the population with regards to voting intentions