Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/580873
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 4 OCTOBER 2015 12 MaltaToday Survey CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1 Additionally, the survey registers the narrowest gap – 4.1 points – between the two parties since January 2015, when Labour was leading by 9 points. The PN got a significant shift of 8% of voters who said they voted Labour in 2013, who this time around would vote for the PN. But confirming Muscat's contin- ued ability to charm the National- ist electorate, the PN still suffers a haemorrhage to Labour – 5% of 2013 PN voters said they will vote for Labour, up from 2.1% back in June. Altogether, the survey suggests that the gap between the two parties has been narrowed from 35,000 to around 21,500 voters – with nearly one-third of 'switchers', those who voted PN in 2008 and Labour in 2013 – now intending to vote again for the PN. Muscat retains strong lead Despite the difficulties he is facing as PM, Muscat retained a strong trust lead with 1 point gained over June. But Busuttil's 3-point gain shows he has kept wins among switchers in June. Back in March, only 9% of these voters preferred him. Now 27%, compared to 29% in June, pre- fer him to Muscat. He also won more Labour vot- ers, up from 4.1% in March to 6.6% now; while his rating went up from 72% in March to 79% among PN voters. This shows that over the past months Busuttil consolidated his position among PN voters while making limited inroads among switchers and Labour voters. Muscat still manages to charm a segment of the PN's 2013 voters: 6% say they now prefer him to Bu- suttil. What is of concern to Muscat is the increase of the segment of PL voters in 2013 that trust neither leader – up from to 7% to 13% since June – suggesting that Busut- til stands strong with his restricted electorate, while Muscat faces problems with his electorate while still enticing a segment of PN vot- ers. PN shifts For the second con- secutive time, the sur- vey registers a small but significant shift in favour of the PN. 8% of PL voters in 2013 say they will vote for the PN; only 5% of PN vot- ers will vote PL. This suggests La- bour has lost some 13,400 votes of its 2013 voters to the PN… which is itself losing 6,600 to the PL. No votes from the PN were lost to Alternat- tiva Demokratika in this survey. But 31.8% of switchers – PN voters who switched to Labour in 2013 – now say they will vote for the PN again, up from just 12% in March, but 2 points less than in June. So the gap between the two par- ties would have been narrowed from 35,000 to around 21,500 voters. This calculation takes into account the flows between the three po- litical parties and is being done with- out taking account of voters who are currently u n d e c i d e d or intent on not voting. Despite its in- roads among switchers, the PN has not stemmed the haemorrhage of votes to- wards Labour, confirming the par- ty's vulnerability to Muscat's ap- peal to middle-of-the-road voters and even traditional Nationalists. It's these gains that keep Labour solidly ahead of the PN even in the face of losing one-third of those switchers who voted for it in 2013. Labour's problems would be greater when factoring in non- voters. Only 6% of the PN's 2013 voters say they would not vote if an election if held now; that percent- age is 12% for Labour's voters. That would see the Labour gap reduced to around 10,400 votes, but this is unlikely to be the case because a large segment of these disillusioned Labour voters still trust Muscat more than Busuttil. Indeed Muscat still commands a stronger following than his party. 40% trust Muscat more than Bu- suttil, when only 32% say they will vote Labour if an election is held now. On the other hand, Busuttil at 29% is only slightly more popular than his party (26%). Even among switchers were 'on- ly' 41% are sure of voting Labour again, 50% trust Muscat more than Busuttil, suggesting that Labour has more room to grow than the PN in recovering its 2013 voters. In fact, while 78% of PL voters say they prefer Muscat, only 74% are sure of voting Labour. On the other hand, while 79% of PN voters pre- fer Busuttil, 82% of PN voters will vote PN again. This suggests that Muscat is more trusted than his party among Labour voters, but Busuttil is less popular than his own party among Nationalist voters. Methodology Survey held between Monday 28 September and Friday 2 Oc- tober respondents contacted and survey stopped after 500- quota sample reached. Margin of error +/-4.4 percentage points. 40.7% of respondents said they voted PL in 2013, while 27.3% said they voted PN – tallying with the gap between both parties in the last general election. Present voting intentions of different categories of 2013 voters 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 For which political party would you vote if an election is held tomorrow? 4.9% 6.1% 3.7% 3.6% 81.7% 74% 40.9% 31.8% 8% 11.5% 6.6% Trust Barometer October 2015 All respondents [change over June 2015] 40% (1.1p) 29.3% (3p) 19.6% (-0.3p) 11.1% (-3.8p) According to how respondents voted in 2013 PN voters in 2013 PL voters in 2013 Switchers in 2013 77.9% 6.6% 13.1% 50% 27.3% 22.7% 6.1% 79.3% 12.2% Trust boost for Busuttil but Muscat leads by 11 1.1p 2.1p 0 2.9p 2.4p -8.2p CHANGE OVER JUNE 32.2% 28.1% 1.7% 14% 13.3% 10.7% PL PN AD Not voting Don't know No reply 13.6% 13.6% PN VOTERS in 2013 PL VOTERS in 2013 SWITCHERS in 2013 ALL RESPONDENTS