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maltatoday, SUNDAY, 1 NOVEMBER 2015 17 highly ambitious parliamentary secretary Ian Borg. As members of the Cabinet they would have an advantage over others like the aspiring young new candidate Aaron Far- rugia, who is close to Muscat's ideological vision, but are yet to make their way to parliament. One important factor is that a wider col- lege of electors, which also includes all party members who have been members for the previous five years, will elect the next Labour leader. Excluding the newer party members due to the five-year-rule will quash the aspirations of outsiders who may be tempted to rock the status quo à la Corbyn. An early election? Muscat may well have another scenario in mind. The self-imposed 10-year time- table may well make it unlikely for Muscat to serve two full terms, so he could opt for two shorter, four-year terms, hoping that a third term would give his party a two-year breathing space to elect a new leader. Muscat may be more likely to call for an early election in this legislature, seizing a favourable moment to avoid the prospect of an Opposition invigorated by narrow- ing the gap in the next election. Muscat knows that another electoral humiliation would throw the Opposition into total disarray, and his out-of-the-box thinking could solve the party's leadership dilem- ma by shortening the legislative term. Stepping down as a winner What is sure is that Muscat would like to step down as a winner and not as a loser. Muscat may well be aware that it is ex- tremely unlikely that Labour would win more than two consecutive terms. Ultimately his decisions may be dictated by one overriding consideration: his desire to go down in the history books as a win- ner who was never beaten in an election. So his decision to step down depends on the prospects of winning elections, and this all depends on the fortunes of his po- litical adversary, Simon Busuttil. Although a victory at the next election remains unlikely for Busuttil due to the magnitude of the gap between the parties, he may well survive a loss at the next elec- tion as PN leader if he substantially reduc- es the 36,000-vote gap. A radical change in the PN's front bench could give Busuttil a bigger chance of winning the 2023 elec- tion, especially if Muscat steps down be- fore, and he would end facing a PL leader who is less experienced than Muscat. But if Busuttil fails to reduce the gap substantively at the next election, Muscat may find himself facing a new PN leader, elected by rank and file party members who may well change the dynamics of the contest in a more unpredictable way. So ultimately Muscat's decision on whether to lead his party for a third victory will de- pend squarely on his adversary's chances of defeating him. Retiring at 49? If he stands down in seven years' time, Muscat would also be the first party leader to quit his political career before reaching retirement age. If he steps down unbeaten, he could remain an albatross around the next La- bour leader's progress. Anything short of a complete exit from politics would mean that the next Labour leader would remain in his shadow. But if he leaves politics to join the private sector, Muscat would face other dilemmas. At 49 Muscat would still have 16 years in front of him before reaching retirement age. Any engagements with the private sector after the end of his political career are bound to raise questions on connec- tions he made while serving the country. Political leaders like Gerhard Schröder in Germany courted controversies through his engagement with Russian energy com- pany Gazprom, and Tony Blair with his consultancies to dictatorial central Asian regimes. jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt Muscat may well be aping Tony Blair, who renounced the leadership after three consecutive electoral victories. Blair and Gordon Brown were said to have sealed a pact well before the former became party leader; he later very reluctantly handed over power after securing a third term. It is unclear whether Muscat has a successor in mind, although this allows him to command the loyalty of all potential successors jockeying for his favour in a potential leadership bid. PHOTO: RAY ATTARD News Any engagements with the private sector after the end of his political career are bound to raise questions on connections he made while serving the country. Schröder and Blair courted controversy with engagements with Russian energy company Gazprom, and consultancies to dictatorial central Asian regimes, respectively CARE TO STEP UP? Which of the current Cabinet line-up could fancy a punt to become next Labour leader in the coming seven-to-ten years? Owen Bonnici Gifted minister for justice is one of Muscat's main lawmakers Edward Zammit Lewis Popular tourism minister has charm and similar vision to Muscat on the economy Ian Borg Young parliamentary secretary for EU funds and 2017 presidency could be set for more responsibilities in the future Busuttil could survive a loss at the next election if he substantially reduces the 36,000-vote gap; a radical frontbench change could give him a bigger chance of winning the 2023 election, especially if Muscat steps down before, for him to face a PL leader less experienced than Muscat