Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/764316
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 18 DECEMBER 2016 12 Unravelling the house of horrors T he siege of Aleppo represents the latest chapter in a war which has already cost 400,000 lives – the equivalent of Malta's population – in which the brutal regime of Bashar al Assad is pitted against a plethora of rebel groups ranging from former army generals to Al Qaeda affiliates. Five years down the line Syria remains an open wound prone to infection by extremism and brutality. The conflict is fed by the ri- val geopolitical interests of regional powers; Turkey and Gulf States which back the rebels and Iran which backs the government. Even more decisive are Russian bombardments indiscriminately targeting rebels fighting against Assad on the pretext of destroying Isis. Looming on the horizon is a Trump Presidency, which many fear will reinforce the Assad regime due to the new president's bromance with the Russian strongman. Is Bashar al Assad a villain or a bastion against Isis? While the regime may be credited for pre- serving Syria's religious diversity, which in- cludes sizeable Druze and Christian minori- ties, the brutality of the regime and its secret police – the detested Makhabarat – is most- ly to blame for setting the scene of a horror show, which commenced in the early 1980s. On June 27, 1980, the day after the Syrian branch of the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood narrowly failed in an attempt to assassinate the brother of President Hafez al Assad (President Bashar's father), a group of Hafez al Assad soldiers, split into squads, were or- dered to kill every prisoner in sight in the Tadmor prison. Rights groups estimate that between 500 and 800 inmates may have died in the bloody melee which took two weeks to clean up. "Language cannot describe it. Fear is the internal sensation when you physically feel your heart between your feet and not in your chest; fear is the look on people's faces, and their darting eyes when the time for the torture sessions nears, wrote Bara Sarraj, a Syrian dissident who was jailed in the same prison in 1984. Two years after the Tadmor massacre Hafez al Assad razed the city of Hama to crush a Sunni rebellion, slaughtering an es- timated 20,000 of his own people. Assad's troops pounded Hama with artillery fire for 27 days and, with the city in ruins, his bull- dozers moved in and flattened neighbour- hoods. The 1982 massacre is regarded as the single bloodiest assault by an Arab ruler against his own people in modern times and remains a pivotal event in Syrian history. When the soft-spoken ophthalmologist Bashar, who is married to a British-born wife, succeeded his father in 2000, many in the west expressed hope that the coun- try would start opening up. Moreover Syr- ia came to be seen as a bastion of stability amidst the mayhem created by the Ameri- can invasion of Iraq. Still with no tangible democratization, the tensions which had been accumulating for years erupted once again in 2011 and Bashar's reaction was similar to that of his father's 30 years before. It all started with protests in February 2011, after authorities arrested 15 school- children for painting anti-government graffiti on the walls of a school in the city of Daraa. Initially pro- tests were non-violent but the conflict was militarized after Syrian army tanks stormed several cities, including Hama and Daraa. At least 136 people were killed. This was the tip- ping point. Who are the rebels? It was army defectors who first or- ganized an armed rebellion against al Assad. These rebels became known as the Free Syrian Army and consisted of thousands of vol- unteers, all with their own reasons for opposing Assad's dictatorship. But as the conflict intensified on the ground it was al Qaeda's affiliate in Syria, Jabhat al-Nusra that emerged as the most potent fighting force opposed both to the regime and Isis. Its brutal track record in- cludes the Adra massacre, which saw the killing of at least 32 Alawite, Christian, Dru- ze and Ismailite civilians in the industrial town of Adra in December 2013. Earlier this year in what was seen as a bid to secure weapons from the west, Jabhat al- Nusra announced that it had split from al- Qaeda and changed its name to Jabhat Fateh al-Sham but there is little evidence that its ideology and tactics have changed. The Kurds have also proclaimed their own republic in the northern Syrian enclave of Rojova. This region may well be the most democratic and emancipated part of the Middle East, with a new constitution grant- ing women full legal rights. While their fighters have fought tooth and nail against Isis in the heroic siege of Kob- ane, they have clashed both with govern- ment and rebel forces. So far rebel groups, including Al Nusra have fought against Isis. One risk facing Syria now is that rebel groups pushed to the brink by Russian bom- bardments may be lured into an alliance with Isis against the common enemy Assad. Which powers have a finger in the Syrian pie? One of the problems in Syria is that too many actors have a finger in the pie. This is partly because the conflict has degenerated into a sectarian one pitting Sunnis backed by the Gulf States and Shiites and Alawites backed by Iran. While Iran- sponsored Hezbollah militias have teamed up with Assad in attacking the rebels, Qatar has been accused on bankrolling Al Nusra. When a group of Christian nuns fell into Nusra hands in Syria in 2013, it was Qatar which helped to bail them out via Lebanon – at a reported price of more than $1m a nun. Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Turkey also has a finger in the pie but while it has used Isis as a pretext for intervention, its main target have been the Syrian Kurds – who are allied with the PKK in Turkey itself, who have been at the forefront in the battle against Isis. Why has Putin intervened in Syria? The ties between the Assad regime and Russia date back to the times of the Soviet Union when Syria leased them a military base in Tartus and an airbase in Latakia. This fulfilled a historical dream dating back to the times of the Czars; that of giving Rus- sia a foothold in the Mediterranean Sea to do away with the natural disadvantage of having their main ports frozen during the Winter. But for Putin Syria has also represented a unique opportunity to present himself as a leader of a great power with global am- bi- tions. I n f lu- e n c e in Syria puts him in a position to thwart an alternative supply of natural gas from the re- gion which would give Europe an alternative to dependency on Russian gas. Putin's imperialism has so far boosted his popularity both at home and internation- ally, especially with the extreme right, as a standard bearer in the war against radical Islam. Surely he has driven a wedge in public opinion in Western countries, by presenting himself as an unscrupulous global strong- men bent on destroying "terrorism", with no qualms about civilian casualties. By using Isis as a pretext to bombard re- bel positions, Putin has also managed to turn the tide in favour of the Assad regime. But he may well be cultivating the seeds of resentment among his victims, which may ultimately catch up with him if Russia gets bogged down in a conflict in foreign soil in the same way as the Soviet Union was bogged down in Afghanistan. Why did the US and the EU fail to intervene? While Russia has intervened in favour of the Assad regime, the US and its western al- lies have been cautious, with their role being limited to striking against Isis and providing logistical support to a shrinking cohort of "moderate" rebels. Obama even failed to act after Assad crossed the red line of using chemical weap- ons against the rebels, Obama as a result sending a message of weakness. Some ar- gue that it was the failure of decisive action against Assad at an earlier stage that has turned Syria into an open wound which Syria Aleppo is being slowly evacuated as forces from the Syrian Arab army advance and intensify a merciless bombing campaign aided by Russia. JAMES DEBONO explains what is happening inside the Syrian quagmire With their finger in the pie: Assad (left) with ally Vladimir Putin. Below: Turkish strongman Reccep Tayyip Erdogan and the Emir of Qatar Tami bin Hamad Al Thani British-born Asma Assad, a former investment banker, with husband Assad