Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/764316
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 18 DECEMBER 2016 News 13 since then has been irremediably infected by extremism. But weighing on Obama is the legacy of George Bush's invasion of Iraq, another fes- tering wound which ultimately produced Isis. And while intervention in Libya did stop Gaddafi from carrying out his threats to exterminate rebels in Benghazi, the after- math was a failed state. Conflicting geo-po- litical interests also thwarted US interven- tion. For example US air cover for the Kurds fighting Isis in Kobane put it at odds with its Turkish Nato ally. Ultimately limited west- ern support for the rebels may have only served to prolong the agony but with Rus- sia decisively intervening in favour of Assad, the end game may be in sight and it is not to the Obama's liking. Obama's best bet to resolve the crisis was the thawing of relations with Iran through the lifting of sanctions in return for Iran scrapping its nuclear programme. In the long term the rapprochement be- tween what Khomeini called the Great Satan and Iran could have reshuffled the Middle East cards, making Assad more dis- posable. But with the unpredictable Trump winning office, American foreign policy is back on the drawing board. What will a Trump presidency mean for Syria? While finding time to meet rapper Kayne West, Trump was silent on what was hap- pening in Aleppo. During the electoral cam- paign Trump had expressed his admiration for Putin and Russian hacking may have even had a role in putting him in the White House. But Trump has also placated the Republican right wing, promising to scrap the deal with Iran (a Russian al- ly) and to strength- en relations with Israeli hardliner Netanyahu who is also dead set against this agreement. It remains a mystery how Trump will continue to pur- sue US strategic interests without coming in conflict with Putin's. The understanding be- tween the two strongmen may well take the shape of respect for their respective spheres of influence, although it remains unclear whether Trump is even interested in engag- ing with the rest of the world. If that were the case, Trump may well have decided to give Putin a freehand in Syria while he con- centrates on his domestic agenda. Why is Aleppo so important for Assad and the rebels? Aleppo was once Syria's largest city, with a population of about 2.3 million. It was also the country's industrial and financial centre. During the conflict Aleppo ended up divided roughly in half – the opposition in control of the east, and the government the west. East Aleppo had a democrati- cally elected council and independent civil society, now lost. After a campaign of con- certed bombardments by government forces backed by Russia the balance tilted in favour of Assad. By 13 December, more than 90% of the city had fallen to the government. The UN warned that up to 100,000 people were trapped in "ever-shrinking" areas of eastern Aleppo, adding that rebels were also stop- ping people from leaving. Food and fuel in the rebel-held areas are running out, and ba- sic infrastructure and health care facilities had been destroyed. At one point in November, all hospitals in eastern Aleppo were virtually out of action as a result of government air strikes. The UN says hundreds of civilians have died, but the government and Russia have denied targeting them. Rebel rocket and mortar fire has also killed dozens of people in the government-controlled west. Thousands of civilians are currently be- ing evacuated from Aleppo to other rebel held areas where they may still end up being targeted by the regime. But in the absence of supervision by a UN peacekeeping force, the evacuation is constantly sabotaged by breaches of the agreed truce, by both sides. For Assad the fall of Aleppo represents a major turnaround and while this may raise hopes of an end to the civil war, it also raises the prospect of more repression, the UN has reported. What could the United Nations have done to avoid this? Humanitarian intervention in Syria may take the shape of UN-supervised evacuation of civilians and sending White Helmet res- cue teams to safe havens. But with Russia holding a permanent seat in the Security Council in which it has the power to veto any resolution, even such a limited intervention is unlikely. Activists have also advocated humanitar- ian air drops to provide much needed help to civilians, something which western nations can do independently of the UN but which could be thwarted by Russia's military pres- ence. jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt Aleppo reduced to rubble: Syria's largest city was the country's industrial and financial centre, but during the conflict the city was divided roughly in half between the opposition in control of the east side, and the government in control of the west While Russia has intervened in favour of the Assad regime, the US and its western allies have been cautious, with their role being limited to striking against Isis and providing logistical support to a shrinking cohort of "moderate" rebels. Current military situation Red Syrian Government Green Syrian Opposition Yellow Federation of North Syria (SDF) Grey Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant White Al-Nusra Front Map last updated on 28 November 2016 (Source: Wikipedia) President Bashar al- Assad's government forces are being fought by a loose alliance of (insignias appear in order of their mention) Sunni Arab rebel groups such as the Free Syrian Army, the majority Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), and Salafi jihadist groups such as the al-Nusra Front, who often co-operate with the Sunni rebels. The factions receive substantial support from foreign actors, such as Qatar and Turkey, apart from a proxy war that is being waged between Iran (which supports Assad) and Saudi Arabia (which supports rebels fighting Assad). Over time, factions of the Syrian opposition split from their original moderate position to pursue an Islamist vision for Syria, as al-Nusra Front and ISIL. In the north, the theatre is shared by the FSA and the Kurdish YPG which leads the Syrian Democratic Forces. REBELS AGAINST ASSAD