Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/768342
11 2017: Looking forward maltatoday, SATURDAY, 31 DECEMBER 2016 not guarantee a victory in the sec- ond round scheduled for 7 May. Although 2016 has shown that political predictions are far from fool-proof, recent polls suggest Francois Fillon, former prime minister and leader of centre-right Les Republicains party, would comfortably defeat le Pen in the second round, especially if left-wing voters rally around Fillon. Barring a surprise from a leftist outsider such as Arnaud Montebourg, a key contender to become the Socialist party's presidential candidate, the Socialists are set for yet another electoral calamity, confirming the inability of the left to offer an alternative and credible vision. Further terrorist attacks or another wave of immigra- tion coupled with high unemployment and a stagnant economy, could boost Le Pen and open the doors for a surprise victory, but as things stand Le Pen could also thrive in defeat. A partial victory for Le Pen in the first round and a good showing in the legislative elections in June could embold- en the far-right in the rest of Europe and pave the way for a stronger challenge by Le Pen in 2022. 4. Four in a row for Merkel Angela Merkel, once seen as the stabilizing force in European politics, is coming under increasing pressure ahead of elections in Germany scheduled for October, particularly from the rising anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany. While Merkel is expected to win a fourth term, her wings are set to be clipped. Polls show that the anti-populist, pro-EU Merkel enjoys a comfortable lead over her nearest rivals, the social-dem- ocrats. However, this will not be enough for an outright victory, meaning that Germany will once again be led by a grand-coalition government formed by Merkel's CDU and the social-democrats. Right-wing populists Alternative for Germany have made significant gains recently and are currently polling third with 12% of the vote. Similarly to the Netherlands and France, the AfD led by Frauke Petry are looking to use anger at Merkel's immigration policies which saw the country welcome almost one million refugees in 2015 to fuel an attack on the establishment. Following the Christmas market attack in Berlin that killed 12 people and injured 48, Merkel is facing accusations that her refugee policy put Germany in mortal danger and the AfD is looking at capitalising on this anger. In 2017• Europe at the crossroads Alfred Sant At the start of 2017, Europe finds itself as never before at a crossroads. This time though, it's not going to be a straightforward choice between two or more directions forward. In effect, the year will be dominated by the quest for a new coherence as the EU faces up to, or retreats from, the various dilemmas and crises that have been building up. Brexit, the confrontation with Russia, terrorism, immigration, Greece, an economic performance that at best remains lacklustre, the populist challenge – these are well known. Less mentioned but just as relevant are other issues such as the EU's future finances, relations with Turkey, the adoption of a "correct" stance towards globalisation and a growing divide between "north" and "south". All this against the background of uncertainties about how US policies will develop under the incoming Trump administration. It has been claimed that coherence will be established when a final decision is taken as to whether what is needed is more or less "Europe". Perhaps. It is likely though that this question will remain pending through 2017 and indeed, that divergences will grow, not decrease. Up to now, the focus has been on the apparent hesitations and stumbles of the UK government as it prepares its negotiating position over Brexit. When talks really start, expect disagreements between member states regarding how to proceed, as they seek to assert national interests. Finding common positions between 27 states which have diverging interests is already a very complex and difficult task. So when problems remain intractable, as with immigration, solutions remain pending. One could argue, as a majority of members in the European Parliament do, that what is therefore needed is more Europe, to ensure that decisions are taken on a "federal" basis. This however ignores the political reality that there is little to no appetite for greater centralisation in many capitals, especially those where governments are subject to populist pressures that openly contest the European project. Their number is increasing. More significantly perhaps, 2016 saw a rollback of the competences of the European institutions. When it came to the ratification of an investment and trade agreement with Canada, it was decided that this should be made subject to the scrutiny of national parliaments. And it was the two most important countries of the Union, France and Germany, who insisted on this. The move led to a confrontation with, of all Parliaments, a regional one in Belgium. Partly to compensate for their "mistake" and to counter the centrifugal forces that Brexit could unleash, France and Germany have been pushing for the EU to take up a reinforced military posture. For a while this dangerous gambit might get some momentum, but in the end it is likely to come to a standstill. The likelihood is that 2017 will be a year of continuing drift for Europe. Right wing populists and "extremists" are likely to be defeated in the French elections but will reaffirm themselves as a "second" force in the country. Their presence and that of their allies in other member states will continue to put a brake on any radical developments on the European project, even if Chancellor Merkel and her allies are returned to power in Berlin. As the Brexit talks start to roll, inevitably the focus of the central EU institutions will be to run a tight negotiating operation (which is not the same thing as maintaining coherence). At a time of economic and social turbulence, the EU is paying the price for having enlarged and deepened its structures too fast, too soon, in the nineties of the previous century. We probably will have to wait till 2018/2019 to see how it will all play out. Alfred Sant is a Labour MEP and former prime minister of Malta At a time of economic and social turbulence, the EU is paying the price for having enlarged and deepened its structures too fast, too soon Is this the end of the EU as we know it? Jean Claude Juncker will oversee one of the most testing years for the bloc Marine Le Pen Geert Wilders Angela Merkel