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maltatoday, SATURDAY, 31 DECEMBER 2016 12 2017: Looking forward 13 THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR IN 2017 5. THE RETURN OF RENZI Matteo Renzi built a reputation as the demolition man, but by tying the result of a referendum on the Italian Constitution to his perma- nence in office saw him press the self-destruct button. Defying calls for a snap election, President Sergio Matarella replaced Renzi with the former foreign affairs minister Paolo Gentiloni, who also hails form Renzi's centre-left party. But that doesn't rule out an early poll in 2017, once the Constitutional Court delivers its conclusions on the elec- toral law and a new law is in place. Renzi – who remains at the helm of the Democratic Party – himself said the next elections would be "presumably in June" but MPs could resist holding them before September. Whenever the election is held, Renzi is likely to return to Palazzo Chigi, possibly strengthening his hand in his drive to push through economic and structural reforms. However, following Silvio Berlusconi's fall from grace and the fragmentation of the populist centre-right, the only al- ternatives to Renzi are the populist Five-Star Movement led by comedian Beppe Grillo and the anti-EU and anti-immi- gration Northern League led by Matteo Salvini. An electoral system which gives immense power to the winner could return to haunt Renzi if Grillo or Salvini's par- ty's win more votes than the Democratic Party. 6. BRITAIN INVOKES ARTICLE 50 By the end of March, Prime Minister Theresa May must kick off Britain's withdrawal from the EU. If all goes ac- cording to plan, it will mean Britain will have left the bloc entirely by March 2019. So far, EU member states are refusing to negotiate with Britain until Article 50 is activated. All signs are that Europe will strike a hard bargain. It is almost certain that some kind of transitional deal will have to be negotiated before a new free trade agreement is agreed, a process likely to take many years. With even Britain's allies insisting that the principle of free move- ment is not negotiable, the talks – to be initially held un- der Malta's EU presidency – are likely to be difficult. If Britain pushes for a hard Brexit, preferred by hardlin- ers, Britain will be completely divorced from the EU and lose access to the Single Market. On the other hand, a soft Brexit would see Britain main- tain close ties with the bloc and while losing certain fea- tures of its EU membership like its MEPs and European Council seat, Britain would retain Single Market mem- bership. In 2017• Russian revanchism Daniel Fiott I wonder if it is only a passing coincidence that Stealers Wheel's 'Stuck in the Middle' is playing in the background while I pen these reflections on the year ahead. 'Clowns to the left of me… Jokers to the right…'. This is perhaps an apt description of Europe's present predicament. An ever-assertive Russia in the East and an enormous question mark hanging over the United States in the West. Either way, Europe is stuck with both the US and Russia, only the middle is now riddled with those familiar dark forces: populism, terrorism, isolationism, nationalism… As the chief of the European Central Bank recently stated: 'uncertainty prevails everywhere'. 'I got the feeling that something ain't right…'. The scope for political and military misunderstanding in 2017 is bound to be high. Moscow is turning Kaliningrad – its European satellite region – into a heavily armed military base that is not only home to the Russian Baltic Fleet but to sophisticated missile systems that can strike targets in central Europe and Scandinavia too. What is more, Russia's ability to use its cyber capacities to cast doubt over elections should not be underestimated. Just as the outgoing US government believes Russia interfered with recent elections, so too must one assume that the 2017 French and German elections could be made targets. Next year could likely see the issue of defence spending and NATO's 'free rider' problem put high up the political agenda. The president-elect's comments about NATO's European allies do cause real concern, but in many ways what was said during the US electoral campaign has brought to a head a longstanding issue for Europe: how to get serious about defence when resources are scarce and political priorities are pulling governments in multiple directions. Several European states have already agreed to increase defence spending over the next few years, but it will take a lot longer than one year for such investments to make a difference. Short of spending more money, governments in Europe may look to innovative policy solutions aimed at boosting cooperation. Work implementing the joint EU-NATO declaration signed after the 2016 NATO Warsaw Summit could bring the two organisations closer together at a vital time. However, 2017 only offers a narrow window of a few months for EU governments to take up the plans on security and defence and Europe's defence industry presented in 2016 by the EU's foreign policy chief and Commission Vice-President, Federica Mogherini. This window will close in March 2017 with the 60-year anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, after which point Europe will head into election mode – first with the Netherlands, then France and ending with Germany – and, of course, 'Brexit' negotiations. The window might then again re-open in 2018. What is there to look forward to in 2017? After all, security in Eastern Europe continues to be tested but fragility in the southern neighbourhood is equally important. Libya is still an unresolved crisis and challenges could yet emerge from sub- Saharan Africa with insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea, the Great Lakes region and South Sudan. This is not to even speak of the consequences that a possible trade dispute between China and the US might have on security in the Asia-Pacific and global trade. What might the year in which Malta takes the reins of the EU presidency look like? Could there be some sort of deal on Syria? Perhaps not. Could Daesh capitulate? More likely, but much will depend on how the war in Syria pans out. Could 'Brexit' end in an amicable divorce? Difficult to say because no one has any idea about the terms or for how long negotiations will last. Apparently 'Stuck in the Middle' was written as a parody of one of Bob Dylan's songs. One can only hope that 2017 does not parody 2016 too closely. Daniel Fiott is Security and Defence Editor at the EU Institute for Security Studies Russian navy coastal minesweepers and anti-submarine warfare corvettes are anchored in a bay of the Russian fleet base in Baltiysk in Kaliningrad region, Russia, July 19, 2015. The Pentagon worries Russia could block NATO access to the Baltic Sea Moscow is turning Kaliningrad – its European satellite region – into a heavily armed military base home to the Russian Baltic Fleet and sophisticated missile systems that can strike targets in central Europe and Scandinavia too Matteo Renzi