Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/490723
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 5 APRIL 2015 10 News Making it local While Busuttil has shown his worth as an organiser – especially in motivating party activists – recruit- ing new candidates (half of whom are new), and targeting swing locali- ties like St Paul's Bay, he still lacks the sparkle to inspire and challenge Muscat on a national level. That is why Labour TV spots are emphasising the national dimen- sion while the PN is emphasising the local dimension by harping on the performance of PN-led councils, compared to that of councils which have a PL majority. Still the national backdrop to the campaign started with the PN on a high note in the wake of the Audi- tor General's damning reports on the Café Premier bailout and the hedg- ing agreement with SOCAR, but then saw Busuttil go on the defensive over revelations about former minis- ter Giovanna Debono. But in the past weeks Busuttil has managed to put accountability, mer- itocracy and transparency at the cen- tre of the political debate, exposing Muscat's greatest weakness – that of failing to deliver on his "taghna lkoll" pledge. However, by putting honesty at the centre of the political debate, Busut- til exposed himself to Labour's abil- ity to undermine him by diverting attention to pre-2013 scandals. Too nervous to score? The Times talk debate has been definitely Busuttil's lowest point in the campaign. While Muscat was condescending and at times arrogant in belittling his adversary, Busuttil showed signs of nervousness and unease, which an- nulled any gains he could have made by hitting out at Muscat's own grow- ing list of "scandals". Moreover while his criticism of Muscat's track record on governance issues was legitimate, he crossed the line by accusing the PM of having been bribed, without backing up his claim. It is doubtful whether Busuttil can ever match Muscat's charisma and trust-rating, which is now boosted by the latter's power of incumbency and his power to dispense patronage and reward converts from the other side. But Busuttil can do much better in charming the electorate. Instead of using his television appearances to portray a positive contrast between his more subdued and sober charac- ter in the face of Muscat's overbear- ing caudillo image, Busuttil is com- ing across as stiff, touchy, nervous and aggressive; all of which are char- acteristics which make people trust him less, not more. This may explain why despite signs that Muscat is losing points, with the latest MaltaToday survey showing his lowest approval rating since the election, Busuttil is still 15 points be- hind Muscat in the trust barometer. The inability to gain ground despite the government's shortcomings may be increasing Busuttil's frustration and he is showing it. This is evident in his unease when faced by media questions and reluc- tance in engaging in exchanges with reporters. In a number of cases he even avoided these exchanges, in- stead of using wit to thwart the as- sault of the Labour media, and turn- ing a liability into an asset. Honesty is a double-edged sword Moreover after being hawkish with regard to the government's short- comings in governance he has been on the defensive over the Giovanna Debono case. One may argue that Busuttil had little space for manoeu- vre a few weeks before elections in various Gozitan localities. Any action against Debono before local elections may well have penal- ised the party in Gozitan localities where local elections are taking place and where Debono is still popular. Surely he may well have killed the issue by suspending the former Min- ister but in so doing he would have set a precedent for any former minis- ter faced with similar accusations. So far Busuttil has consistently said that he would only suspend PN activists in two cases: when they admit their wrongdoing, as was the case with former PN ministers Michael Falzon and Ninu Zammit, or when they are formally charged by the police. So far Busuttil has not been faced by the latter scenario, which rather puts him at the mercy of the police com- missioner. Ultimately Busuttil may feel frus- trated that his ambitions are thwart- ed by revelations on past matters over which he had no control but he desperately needs to formulate a strategy to counter the fallout from such cases. The scale of a defeat foretold Busuttil has set himself very mod- est and vague goals; that of improv- ing the party's performance in some localities lost in the 2012 round. In fact Busuttil has refrained from set- ting a benchmark on which he can be questioned after the election. Busuttil clearly starts the election as the underdog and his expectations are low. This is why the party has downplayed the importance of local elections, which ironically are only taking place thanks to the opposi- tion's principled stance against their being put off to 2019. The party has also shown signs of vitality by presenting a number of new candidates in various localities. Definitely Busuttil and party general secretary Chris Said must be cred- ited for rebuilding a party machine which had ceased to function. The party seems to have been more focused on the local dimension of these elections but in doing so it risked being overtaken by Muscat's national approach to them. Since Busuttil has not set any tar- gets, probably to insulate himself against defeat, it will be left to others to set his benchmarks. One can identify two scenarios of defeat for Busuttil. One scenario would be losing more localities to Labour than the party did in 2012 (when elections were held in most of the localities being contested now). Another scenario would be that of the party getting less than the 40%- 42% gained in the previous round of elections. One has to make allowance for the fact that in 2012 elections were also held in PN stronghold Sliema that does not form part of this round. Equally one can identify two sce- narios of victory; namely winning more localities than in 2012 and get- ting a better overall percentage. Probably the elections will be harder to interpret than this as the PN may recover ground in some areas while losing ground in oth- ers. Therefore ultimately what most people will be looking for when lo- cal election votes are counted is the overall percentage. If Busuttil manages to narrow the gap, he will consolidate his leader- ship and embark on the long way to recovery, which may take him to vic- tory around 2023. But if Busuttil fails to make any in- roads, his leadership will once again be questioned and the party will be thrown again into disarray. In this sense Busuttil has more to lose than Muscat in these elections. For while Muscat can blame any setback on mid-term blues, the only way for Bu- suttil should be up and not further down the abyss. Busuttil's referendum calculus Busuttil failed to break with the past when he supported the abolition of spring hunting, a cause supported by a majority of PN voters. This may well have been Busuttil's opportu- nity to gain sympathy among liberal and young voters alienated by Mus- cat's pro hunting stance. But Busuttil must be credited for not torpedoing the 'no campaign' by turning the campaign, as he could have done, into a partisan battle be- tween the two leaders. Ironically by taking a stance in favour of spring hunting, Busuttil neutralised the impact of Muscat's pro spring hunting declaration. For Labour voters do not feel any obli- gation to vote yes, which could have been the case had Busuttil taken a different stance. Moreover Busuttil has behaved ethically, keeping his word not to make any further declaration about the referendum. Strategically the referendum may also increase turnout in PN strong- holds like St Julians and Attard, where voters who normally shun local elections may turn up to vote against spring hunting. If these voters also decide to vote for PN candidates contesting local elections, they may well help their party reduce the gap. But with AD also contesting these localities, this is far from a foregone conclusion. For these voters have another viable option, especially in Attard, where AD is represented by a respected and established candidate. Ultimately Busuttil will be remem- bered for not being bold enough to support the no campaign. But by do- ing so he may well have saved the no campaign from getting bogged down in a political battle where Busuttil could have been a major liability. The mid-term How have the two leaders fared so far in the campaign for local elections that Joseph Muscat first wanted to avoid but then proceeded to fight tooth and nail to win, JAMES DEBONO asks? SIMON BUSUTTIL Simon Busuttil, an organiser