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maltatoday, SUNDAY, 12 APRIL 2015 8 News JOSEPH MUSCAT • Achilles heel exposed? THE spring hunting referendum was the first political issue which Joseph Muscat could not fully con- trol to his advantage. It was Muscat who at the beginning of the cam- paign made it clear that he would vote yes but would keep a distance from the campaign to allow room for debate in civil society. But during the campaign, faced with surveys showing a No lead, he reiterated his intention to vote yes on three separate occasions, while still renouncing active campaign- ing. In this way he could not argue his case for a position which, to be convincing, needed a lot of explain- ing on his part – defending the kill- ing of birds is never a sexy issue for a politician. In case of a No victory Muscat may feel relieved of a source of em- barrassment within the bourgeois constituency he has nurtured since his election as Labour leader and of a potential source of wrangling with EU institutions. But by accepting the result without ifs or buts and then clamping down hard on any hunting taking place in spring he could also rehabilitate himself with environmentalists and voters who shun hunting. For Muscat this could be the op- portunity to ride on the crest of a referendum which he opposed but which he could still milk to his politi- cal advantage by posturing himself as the enforcer of the result by coming down like a ton of bricks on any il- legal activity. This would still come at a cost: that of possibly alienating the hunting fraternity, a category which may feel let down by Muscat's decision to go half way in supporting their cause. For Muscat would probably be blamed for a No victory by a signifi- cant part of the pro hunting lobby, for not doing enough for them. While Muscat did reiterate his stance in favour of the spring hunting dero- gation, he never did so enthusiasti- cally and passionately as he seemed reluctant to lend his name to what appeared to be a lost cause. Muscat's hesitation to defend the hunting cause in the last week of the campaign may well have been his re- action to surveys showing an inevita- ble No victory. But hunters who in- vested their vote in Labour in the last general election and subsequent lo- cal elections may well feel betrayed. For effectively spring hunting would have been abolished on Muscat's watch. Controlling the frustration of those who thought that they had it all will be a hard feat for the Prime Minister. In some ways hunting was the first issue to rip open the movement cre- ated by Muscat. It has clearly split the redneck constituency from both liberal bourgeois voters as well as many urbanised working class voters who shun blood sports. Moreover Muscat had himself raised their expectations by remov- ing the spring hunting licence fee, extending hunting times during the curfew and letting prominent activ- ists like Cyrus Engerer and Clint Camilleri actively support a petition aimed at stopping the referendum. One way of dealing with this disap- pointment would be that of offering more concessions to the hunting lobby in the autumn season, and by stamping his feet in EU institutions with regard to trapping. But if Muscat chooses this path he would be clearly in denial, having not recognised that for the second time since the 2003 EU referendum he was on the wrong side of history. He would find himself in the same posi- tion that Gonzi found himself in af- ter the electorate's vote for divorce. The only advantage Muscat has is that unlike Gonzi he will not have to vote on this issue in parliament – in this case the referendum result is the end of the story. Therefore any comparison with Gonzi not respecting the result by voting against divorce in parliament, though the electorate had voted for divorce, would be inappropriate be- cause in his case Muscat has no op- tion but to respect the result. This would not be the case if the Yes wins. For hunters, elated if they win, would know deep in their hearts that they would owe their victory to Muscat and the loyalty of PL voters who followed him. A Yes victory would also signify that the word had been passed on through the party's grass roots with- out giving too much away to the media. Muscat could also use a Yes victory as an opportunity to tame the hunting lobby. For in case of a Yes victory hunters will be expected to keep their part of the deal and not embarrass the Prime Minister by celebrating their victory by shooting illegally before the season starts the next day. Muscat may well win the eternal gratitude of the hunting fraternity, which will feel obliged not to spoil their victory with illegalities. In this sense Muscat may well project him- self as the man who was able to make hunting respectable. Yet a Yes victory could well be a poisoned chalice for Muscat. A sec- tion of the population may well feel increasingly alienated from the La- bour government, as they would as- sociate him with a lobby they resent. In this sense a Yes victory may well be more damaging to Labour's he- gemony than a No. For while in case of the latter No voters who prefer Labour to the PN would return to the fold happy that spring hunting has been abolished, if the Yes wins they may never forgive Muscat for supporting the Yes camp. Moreover hunters may accommodate Muscat in the days immediately after their victory, but their hunger for more concessions may well be insatiable. Ultimately a Yes victory may well be a pyrrhic victory for Muscat, as it would embitter a constituency of environmentally conscious voters which he cannot afford to continue alienating. SIMON BUSUTTIL • No risk, no gain. No pain? Busuttil has kept his promise not to interfere in the campaign after de- claring that he would be voting yes. In so doing he has avoided turning the issue into a partisan battle between himself and Muscat, fully knowing that the latter is more trusted by the electorate. In fact this may well have been the factor which stopped Muscat from swaying more Labour voters to the Yes camp. In fact in one of his three brief interventions during the cam- paign, Muscat tried to raise passions by suggesting that Busuttil was cov- ertly supporting the No campaign. Through his lack of boldness to break with the past and support the abolition of spring hunting, Busuttil will find himself on the wrong side of history if the No camp is declared the winner today. He would not even be able to join the vast majority of PN voters who will be celebrating the No victory. Yet Busuttil may have earned some points among support- ers of the No campaign for sticking to his promise to not interfere in the campaign and leaving it up to civil society to debate this issue. Moreover Busuttil's decision to support spring hunting may well have been a bonus to the No cam- paign. For while the vast majority of PN voters ignored Busuttil's stance and expressed an intention to vote no, Labour voters opposed to hunt- ing were not embarrassed by appear- ing to be on the same side as Busut- til. Moreover if the Yes camp wins, Bu- suttil has little to gain. For although Busuttil has declared that he will be voting yes, he is still perceived as lead- ing a party which is less pro hunting than the Labour party. Hunters will probably feel more gratitude towards Muscat than towards Busuttil. Still in the case of a No victory what Muscat says after the referen- dum may be his chance to redeem his good name with environmental- ists and No voters, and what Busut- til says may well spoil any inroads he has made by behaving correctly dur- ing the campaign. For if Busuttil tries to score points by appealing to the frustration of hunters disappointed by the result, by blaming Muscat for their predica- ment, Busuttil will be playing a dan- gerous game which could disorient the vast majority of PN voters who Death or glory? The consequences How will a Yes or a No impact the protagonists of the spring hunting referendum campaign and the political leaders? asks JAMES DEBONO Hunting was the first issue to rip open the movement created by Muscat, splitting the redneck constituency from liberal bourgeois voters and the urbanised working class that shuns bloodsports Prime Minister Joseph Muscat (right) with Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi earlier this week