Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/649887
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 6 MARCH 2016 8 News The Labour party – The risk of paralysis Unlike previous scandals, the Panama affair has hit the core of Muscat's government, dragging down with it not only Konrad Mizzi at the very moment when he was anoint- ed deputy leader by 96% of party conference delegates, but also Keith Schembri, the Prime Minister's own chief of staff. Previous scandals, such as the one involving Marco Gaf- farena, led to the resignation of junior minister Michael Fal- zon who was himself a rival to Muscat in the 2008 leader- ship contest. So far the electorate has blamed bad governance on errant ministers, while Muscat was seen as the saving grace for the party. But this scandal is too close to home for Muscat. For the first time Muscat has been gridlocked. While pre- viously he did not hesitate to fire Anglu Farrugia, Emanuel Mallia and Michael Falzon, he is incapable of doing the same to Konrad Mizzi and Keith Schembri, for the simple reason that by doing so he would be further undermining his own hold on power. Moreover, Mizzi himself has declared in an interview that he had informed Muscat of his fiscal ar- rangements in Panama and New Zealand three weeks before the scandal erupted in the public arena, while also admitting that it was the PM's chief of staff who sug- gested to him to set up his trust. In this sense the scandal that struck while Labour was electing Mizzi as Mus- cat's second in command, has paralysed the government's central nervous system rather than hitting some gangrenous or- gan of party or government. The scandal and the damage done But how far will this scandal damage the Labour party? Surveys held so far before the Panama dealings show Labour losing a third of switchers to the PN and a tenth of traditional voters to abstention. Logic dictated that with Muscat en- joying an eight-point trust lead over Busuttil, it would not have been difficult for Muscat during an electoral campaign to recover a large part of disgruntled Labour voters. This pointed towards another victory, albeit with a reduced but still sizeable margin. Still, will Muscat be able to win back disgruntled Labourites now that he has lost his sheen? The scandal may have robbed Muscat of his greatest strength: his invulnerability. The very risk of losing the next election may in itself reinforce entrenchment and en- courage ministers fighting for the survival of their govern- ment to dish out favours to disgruntled Labourites. While the power of incumbency may yet win Labour votes, the party may find itself embroiled in yet more scandals, which may end up being exposed by the media before the election. For while till now Labour could turn back some of the most unreasonable requests, in the comfort of the wide gap between the parties, it may now start treating each sin- gle vote as vital in its bid to retain power. The silver lining for Labour is that the very prospect of a PN victory may trigger a perverse tribal mechanism through which its supporters close ranks. But Labour also includes a growing category of discerning voters who may be only weakly attached to these loyalties. They may also be keen on punishing Labour for wasting a historical opportunity to change the way the country is governed. Some Labour sup- porters and officials may even be feeling disappointed that years of hard work are being put at risk by the behaviour of a few trusted individuals who lacked sound political judge- ment. While most of its core voters will probably vote Labour again, to keep the Nationalists out, they will do so with sub- dued enthusiasm, something that voters will see through. Others may feel obliged to support Labour for the sake of safeguarding a number of progressive reforms enacted by the Muscat government, such as civil unions, but some may feel that bad governance and neoliberal choices have out- weighed these. But Muscat's sudden endorsement of gay marriage, right at the height of the Panama scandal, sounds cynical and a cheap way to exorcise scandal by using the civil liberties trump card. Facing the negative with the positive Faced with the PN's onslaught on corruption, the PL's best response may well be that of harp- ing on the positive achievements of the government in areas like social policy, the economy, education and civil liberties. Labour may also bid to rehabili- tate Mizzi's name by heralding the opening of the new gas-fired power station. The PL is likely to harp on its positives while pressing the point that the Opposition may put these achievements in danger. The PL may also raise the spectre of the PN reversing social reforms, such as civil liberties, recalling Busuttil's abstention in the civil unions vote. It may also present the PN as a threat to economic stability, some- thing which the PN effectively did with regard to Labour when it was in government. Still, this may be more difficult for Labour because economic stability was widely seen as the strongest point of the embattled Gonzi administration. It is also very likely that the PL will avoid needless con- frontation with civil society on environmental issues in the next two years, to avoid creating new pockets of dissent beyond the Zonqor point case, while at the same using the regressive planning policies approved in the past two years as bait to keep developers in line. Yet some Labourites may feel bitter seeing that the reck- lessness of two persons in high level positions have endan- gered the future of the entire government, and this may make them unforgiving. Still, it remains unclear whether in- ternal opposition may erupt in a party which has now been shaped in Muscat's own image. The ultimate consequence of this may be an accumulation of bad blood and unease, which may paralyse the Labour Party. In its absence, it will be the government machine and Muscat in his 'presidential' role who will fight tooth and nail to win the next election. Nationalist party – The risk of over-confidence By default the Nationalist Party has been given a new lease of life by the Panama scandal. Although recent surveys have shown a slow recovery, it was clear that the eight-point trust gap between the two political leaders in the polls weakened the party's chances of winning. At best the PN was hoping for a narrower gap. But while renewed confidence in victory may galvanise supporters and donors and set the momentum for the next election, it may trigger the kind of over-confidence which may be counter productive to the party's rehabilitation from the 2013 drubbing. In this sense, Labour's implosion may trigger an amnesia in the PN's leadership about the rea- sons which led the electorate to thrash the PN in the 2013 elections. It may also result in a self-righteous mode which could further alienate switchers who hate being told how wrong they were in 2013. A protest too far? So far the response of party leader Simon Busuttil to the Panama scandal has been somewhat disappointing. After giving Muscat a 24-hour ultimatum, many expected deci- sive action in parliament through the presentation of a mo- tion of censure in Konrad Mizzi and Keith Schembri. Instead, the PN leader announced a national protest against corruption, an announcement that came as an an- ti-climax for those expecting a parliamentary showdown. Moreover Busuttil, who normally shows his best when speaking in parliament, has opted for a show of force in the streets where he still lacks the sense of gravitas associated with Fenech Adami's appeal to the grass roots in the tur- bulent 1980s. How to win an impossible election Surveys show that the PN needs three things to win the next election; 1) recover most switchers who shifted from the PN to the PL in 2013; 2) retain the absolute majority of its 2013 vote base and galvanise their enthusiasm to carry the party's message; and 3) bank on abstention of a signifi- cant number of Labour voters. Today's national protest against corruption will probably help the party achieve the second aim, but the climate of retrenchment may actually be counter-productive to at- tracting switchers and keeping Labour voters away from the polling booths. Ironically, the prospect of the PN becom- ing electable again may reinforce tribal loyalty among PL supporters who so far felt comfortable in the knowledge that the PN had no chance of winning and were banking on a reduced gap as a way to quell Muscat's arrogance. The greatest enemy the PN faces is its own recent history in gov- ernment, where good governance was lacking. The PN's trust deficit How has the Panama scandal impinged on the fortunes of Malta's political parties and leaders? JAMES DEBONO asks 'Panamagate' has paralysed the government's central nervous system rather than hitting some gangrenous organ Some Labourites may feel bitter over how the recklessness of two persons in high level positions have endangered the party's chances FROM PARALYSIS TO OVER-CONFIDENCE ★ ★ AFTER PANAMA...