Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1101649
11 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 7 APRIL 2019 NEWS MALTATODAY SURVEY KURT SANSONE THE Labour Party enjoys a com- fortable 17-point lead on the Na- tionalist Party just 48 days before the European Parliament election, a MaltaToday survey found. The difference between both par- ties has remained stable since Feb- ruary when the MaltaToday survey started asking how people would vote in the May EP election. Support for the PL stood at 41.8% in the latest survey, a drop of half a percentage point over the March survey. Support for the PN stood at 25.2%, a two-point drop. The gap suggests that the PL could be on course to clinch four seats against the PN's two. Support for third parties appears to be negligible at this juncture with neither of the two established mi- nor parties – Democratic Party and Alternattiva Demokratika – leaving their mark on the survey. This does not mean they will get no votes but support for them ap- pears to be thin. Far-right candidate Norman Low- ell, who will run under the banner of Imperium Europa, which was regis- tered as a political party last month, has so far failed to make inroads. The results for third parties have to be interpreted with caution though, because a zero result in the survey falls within the margin of error. This means their numbers could potentially fluctuate between zero and 5%. Voters who said they will not vote in the election have stabilised at 13.8% but there was an increase to 17.3% in voters who were uncertain who to vote for. The survey was conducted be- tween Thursday 28 March and Thursday 4 April. PL strong among women and elderly The PL leads the PN across all age groups, both male and female vot- ers, and all regions. The closest gap between the major parties is among voters aged 18 to 35. The PL registered 28.6% of sup- port against the PN's 24.1%. But this cohort was also the one with high- est number of voters who were un- certain who to vote for (24.4%) and who will not vote (20.4%). The PL's strongest showing was among elderly voters, where it scored 60.8% as opposed to the PN's 25.3%. The PN's strongest showing was among those aged between 36 and 50 (26.7%), although it still trailed the PL, which registered 35%. The PL appears to be more attrac- tive to female voters than it is to men. While 46.1% of women voters support the PL, the number drops to 38.3% among men. On the PN side, the ratio shifts with 23% being female voters and 26.9% male. On a regional basis, the PL's strongest showing was in the South- ern Harbour (51.9%), followed by the South-Eastern region (46.1%). The PN's strongest showing was in the Western region (34.9%), fol- lowed by the Northern Harbour (32.8%). The PL's weakest result was in the Northern Harbour (36.3%), while the PN's woes in the south were confirmed by the disastrous 6.9% it registered in the South-Eastern re- gion. Political allegiance The PN leader's woes among peo- ple who voted for his party in the 2017 election are not fully replicat- ed at party level. There are Nationalist voters who do not trust Delia but will still vote for the PN. The survey found that 61.1% of PN 2017 voters will vote for the PN next May. The number is much higher for the PL with 77.5% of 2017 La- bour voters reconfirming their sup- port. However, while 8.9% of PL voters said they will not vote, the equiva- lent score for PN voters stood at 13.2%. Uncertainty among PN 2017 vot- ers (21.6%) was almost double that of PL voters (11.1%). This indicates that the PN has a lot more of convincing to do to bring out its voters. PL leads by 17 points as final lap nears As in other surveys, the gap between the two major parties suggests that the PL could be on course to clinch four seats against the PN's two The PN leader's woes among people who voted for his party in the 2017 election are not fully replicated at party level. There are Nationalist voters who do not trust Delia but will still vote for the PN Northern Northern Harbour South Eastern Southern Harbour Western 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 49.7% 17.5% 29.7% 43.1% 23.3% 30.7% 55.7% 10.6% 16.8% 16.8% 60.0% 19.3% 17.1% 44.5% 36.5% 17.0% Joseph Muscat Adrian Delia Neither Don't Know For which political party will you vote for if a general election is held tomorrow? PL PN AD PD Do not know No vote 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 41.8% 25.1% 17.3% 3.4pp 13.8% April (%) PP change from Feb 2019 Voting intentions among different categories of voters All PL 2017 PN 2017 Did not vote 2017 Male Female 18-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary Gozo Northern Northern Harbour South Eastern Southern Harbour Western 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 41.8% 25.1% 17.3% 13.8% 77.5% 11.1% 8.9% 61.1% 21.6% 13.2% 12.0% 33.2% 44.1% 38.3% 26.9% 16.0% 16.4% 46.1% 23.0% 18.8% 10.7% 28.6% 24.1% 24.4% 20.4% 35.0% 26.7% 15.9% 19.1% 48.5% 24.9% 14.7% 10.4% 60.8% 25.3% 11.4% 70.5% 16.0% 7.7% 48.7% 25.5% 14.0% 9.7% 27.9% 32.8% 27.9% 10.2% 22.2% 23.7% 21.8% 29.1% 41.6% 30.3% 9.2% 15.3% 37.5% 18.0% 13.8% 20.4% 36.3% 32.8% 17.0% 13.4% 46.1% 6.9% 29.7% 17.4% 51.9% 21.3% 17.9% 8.1% 42.1% 34.9% 11.5% 11.6% PL PN AD PD Don't know No vote 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Northern Northern Harbour South Eastern Southern Harbour Western 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 49.7% 17.5% 29.7% 43.1% 23.3% 30.7% 55.7% 10.6% 16.8% 16.8% 60.0% 19.3% 17.1% 44.5% 36.5% 17.0% Joseph Muscat Adrian Delia Neither Don't Know For which political party will you vote for if a general election is held tomorrow? PL PN AD PD Do not know No vote 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 41.8% 25.1% 17.3% 3.4pp 13.8% April (%) PP change from Feb 2019 Voting intentions among different categories of voters All PL 2017 PN 2017 Did not vote 2017 Male Female 18-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary Gozo Northern Northern Harbour South Eastern Southern Harbour Western 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 41.8% 25.1% 17.3% 13.8% 77.5% 11.1% 8.9% 61.1% 21.6% 13.2% 12.0% 33.2% 44.1% 38.3% 26.9% 16.0% 16.4% 46.1% 23.0% 18.8% 10.7% 28.6% 24.1% 24.4% 20.4% 35.0% 26.7% 15.9% 19.1% 48.5% 24.9% 14.7% 10.4% 60.8% 25.3% 11.4% 70.5% 16.0% 7.7% 48.7% 25.5% 14.0% 9.7% 27.9% 32.8% 27.9% 10.2% 22.2% 23.7% 21.8% 29.1% 41.6% 30.3% 9.2% 15.3% 37.5% 18.0% 13.8% 20.4% 36.3% 32.8% 17.0% 13.4% 46.1% 6.9% 29.7% 17.4% 51.9% 21.3% 17.9% 8.1% 42.1% 34.9% 11.5% 11.6% PL PN AD PD Don't know No vote 25 30 35 40 45 50 55