Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/652704
12 maltatoday, SUNDAY, 13 MARCH 2016 MaltaToday Survey CONTINUES FROM PAGE 1 In the trust barom- eter, Busuttil now trails Muscat by eight points, down from nine last month. This is the lowest gap between the two leaders reg- istered in the past two years. On the other hand, although 2008 Labour voters are surprisingly less keen on not voting than last month (down from 10% to 7%) they are more willing to switch sides. 4% of these traditional PL voters have shifted to the PN or AD (up from none last month). The survey also suggests that electoral fever is increasingly gripping the country with all three parties scoring gains. But while the PN has gained 6 points, Labour gains 4 points and AD gains half a point. The results of the survey must be seen in the light of an increase in the propor- tion of voters who were willing to declare their voting intentions. In fact the share of respondents who declared their political allegiance in 2013 has shot up from 66% in February to 76% now. The percentage of those who declared their present vot- ing intentions has also shot up from 59% last month to 69% now. The survey sample reflects the result of the 2013 general elec- tion, with 43% declaring they had voted for the PL and 32% voting for the PN. How Panamagate has impacted Labour voters The survey shows the percentage of La- bour voters in 2013, who trust neither of the two leaders, has risen from 11% to 14%. 5% of Labour voters (the same as last month) trust Busuttil more than Muscat while 78% trust Muscat more than Busut- til. Not surprisingly Panamagate has left a greater impact on switchers (respondents who voted PL in 2013 and PN in 2008) than traditional labour voters. Among switchers the percentage of those who trust Muscat more than Busuttil has declined from 38% to 23% while those who trust Busuttil more than Muscat has remained stable at 27%. The percentage of switchers who trust nei- ther leader has shot up from 22% to 41%. Moreover within this category only 20% intend voting for the PL again, down from 33% last month. Significantly the percent- age of switchers who would now vote PN has shot up from 28% to 32%. This means that one in every three switchers has now returned to the fold. The percentage of switchers intending to vote PN has in- creased from just 12% a year ago to 32% now. Interestingly the number of undecided switchers has gone up from 6% last month to 27% now, while 21% will not be voting. This is an indication that w But Panamagate has had less of an impact on most traditional Labour voters even if it has spurred a small but significant mi- nority of PL voters to switch political al- legiance. While none of these voters shifted to oth- er parties in the February survey 2.5% now intend voting PN while 1% intend voting AD. Moreover the number of traditional PL voters who trust Busuttil more than Muscat has slightly increased from 2% to 3%. This suggests that the PN has started to nibble at the PL's core vote. Surprisingly the percentage of tradition- al Labour voters who trust neither party leader has slightly gone down from 10.5% to 9.2% after Panamagate. This suggests that although Muscat's leadership still fac- es a problem of trust with a significant part of Labour's electorate, Panamagate has not resulted in a further increase of disgruntle- ment among this category of voters. But the survey suggests that Panama- gate has further strengthened the unease among this section of PL voters to the ex- tent that some are switching allegiances. In fact while the percentage of traditional PL voters who intend not to vote in a forth- coming election has decreased by 4 points the percentage who are defecting to the PN or AD has also increased by 4 points. Joseph Muscat still remains more popu- lar than his own party although less than before. While 34% would vote for the PL in a forthcoming election, 37% trust Mus- cat more than Busuttil. Last month Muscat was 7 points more popular than his party. Now he is only 3 points more popular than his party. Moreover while Muscat registers the same trust rating as last month, the per- centage of respondents who will vote for the PL has increased by 4 points. This re- flects the overall increase in respondents of both parties who were willing to declare their present and past voting intentions in this particular survey. This may be attrib- uted to the political climate. While the gap between the two parties amounts to just a percentage point, Mus- cat is now 4 points ahead of Busuttil. This suggests that in a presidential style contest the PL may enjoy a wider margin over the PN than the one-point difference regis- tered in the survey. How Panamagate has impacted on PN voters The survey clearly shows that the PN has consolidated its voting base. While in February 10% of PN voters in 2008 declared that they would vote for the PL in a forthcoming election, in this survey only 5% of these voters opted for Labour. Surveys over the past years consistently showed the PN losing 10% to 15% of its 2008 voters to Labour. In this sense Pan- amagate may have well served to help the PN recover its 2008 strength. The survey also indicates that the party has recovered most of its 2008 voters who abstained in the 2013 general election. The party has clearly made greater inroads among non-voters in 2013, 20% of whom would vote PN while only 9% would vote Labour. Neither is the PN registering any signifi- cant losses to Labour. In fact while the PN is on the receiving end, with 5% of PL vot- ers in 2013 now intent on voting for it, it is losing 2% of its 2013 voters to Labour. Moreover while a year ago only 12% of switchers intended to vote PN, now 32% will be voting for the opposition party. Still although the PN is gaining more votes from the PL than losing, it still starts the race with a 36,000 vote deficit. The main reason why the PN is lagging one point behind the PL is that 10% of PL vot- ers in 2013 will presently not vote (com- pared to 6% of PN voters). Only 2% of PN voters in 2013 trust Mus- After Panamagate, Busutttil cuts trust gap down to 4 points Present voting intentions of different categories of 2013 voters 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 For which political party would you vote if an election were held tomorrow? 2.2% 6.1% 2.2% 89.5% 74.5% 20.6% 5.4% 0.8% 9.6% 8.4% 3.5p 6.1p 0.5p -1.8p -1.8p -6.5p CHANGE OVER FEBRUARY 34.3% 33.5% 1.3% 10.9% 11.3% 8.6% PL PN AD Not voting Don't know No reply 20.6% PN VOTERS in 2013 PL VOTERS in 2013 SWITCHERS in 2013 ALL RESPONDENTS 26.5% 32.4% Methodology A total of 959 respondents were contacted by telephone. The survey was held between Monday 7th and Wednesday 9th March. 550 accepted to participate in the survey. The survey was stopped when this quota was reached. The results were weighed to reflect the age and gender balance of the population.The survey has a margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points For which party did respondents say they voted in 2013 PL 43.1% PN 32.1% AD 1.2% Didn't vote 6.3% Under-18 2% No reply 15.3% A large segment of switchers is disenchanted by the PL but is reluctant on switching again to the PN