Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/734031
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 2 OCTOBER 2016 19 MaltaToday Survey According to how respondents voted in 2013 PN voters in 2013 PL voters in 2013 Switchers in 2013 78.1% 8.6% 3.3% 10% 2.7% 83.3% 8% 6% Trust Barometer September 2016 All respondents [change over May 2016] 40.9% (1.1p) 12.1% (1.7p) 13.8% (-3.4p) Present voting intentions of different categories of 2013 voters 33.2% (0.6p) 26.7% 33.3% 13.4% 26.6% PN voters 2013 PL Voters 2013 Switchers 2013 PN voters 2008 PL voters 2008 PL 2% 63.8% 20% 6.5% 76.1% PN 76.7% 5.7% 26.7% 65.6% 3.8% AD 0.7% 1% 3.3% 1.3% 0 Marlene Farrugia 2% 0.5% 0 1.3% 0 Others 0 0.5% 3.3% 0.6% 0 Not voting 4% 9% 16.6% 6.5% 6.9% Don't know 10.7% 12.9% 23.3% 13.6% 8.8% No reply 3.9% 6.6% 6.8% 4.6% 4.4% Methodology The survey was held between Monday 26 and Thursday, 29 September. The results were weighed to reflect the age and gender balance of the population. 871 respondents were contacted. 500 respondents accepted to participate in the survey. The survey has a margin of error of +/-4.3 points. For which party respondents said they voted in 2013 PL 42.5% PN 31.2% AD 1.5% Didn't vote 5.9% Under-18 2.2% No reply 16.7% How parties can increase their support ALTHOUGH the survey shows the PL leading by only three points – which would represent a nine-point drop for Labour when compared to the 2013 elec- tion result, Muscat enjoys a trust lead of eight points over Busuttil. This suggests that Labour has great- er room to grow among the larger percentage of respondents who trust Muscat more than Busuttil, than the PN does among those who trust Bu- suttil more than Muscat. This gives a pivotal role in the forth- coming election to that segment which trusts Muscat more than Busuttil but who are still undecided on who to vote for or who intend to abstain in a forth- coming election. This strategic sector amounts to 12% of the electorate. The segment which trusts Busuttil most but is still undecided or intent on not voting, amounts to 4.3%. On the other hand the PN faces the daunting task of win- ning over voters who presently do not trust its leader but may not be so keen on voting for Labour. This is a major handicap for the PN. This is why Muscat may be bank- ing on turning the next election into a presidential contest against Busuttil. For although he was seriously dam- aged by Panamagate and other scan- dals which saw a 15-point trust lead in January 2015 halved, Muscat surpris- ingly still enjoys a substantial lead. But Muscat still faces a problem among Labour voters. A tenth of PL voters in 2013 and 5% of PL voters in 2008 trust neither leader. Only 6% of PN voters in 2013 trust neither leader. Moreover while 9% of PL voters in 2013 are intent on not voting, only 4% of PN voters in 2013 would do the same. This suggests that the PN may still find room to grow among disgruntled PL voters if Muscat fails to win them back. But for the PN to do this it may find itself moving outside its own ideo- logical comfort zone to appeal to past Labour voters. Small parties may also make gains from this category. But at present they only attract 2% of Labour voters in 2013 compared to 2.7% of PN voters in 2013.