Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1002137
11 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 8 JULY 2018 significant exception of for- eign policy where it is aligned with Putin's Russia. But as it now governs Italy with Salvini's Lega, it repre- sents another incognita. The party will have to choose between remaining alone or replicating the Italian exper- iment in Europe. Ultimately another obstacle is that far-right parties tend to fight for their own coun- try's national interest and are therefore unlikely to join others on a pan-European platform. For example on migration, far-right parties in central Europe support sending mi- grants back to Italy despite the protests of Italy's far- right government. Therefore, the European right-wing may be destined to remain a disruptive force at European level with far- right parties more interested in taking a share of power in the nation states. This makes it unlikely for all forces to the right of the EPP to unite behind one 'Spitzenkandidat' candi- date to replace Jean-Claude Juncker as European Com- mission president. It is also unlikely for any new European centrist group to present a candidate for the presidency. This means that the debate between Spitzenkandidaten will be restricted to the es- tablished European families, thus giving them an advan- tage. Will Malta follow the wave? In the last MEP elections in Malta, the far-right Impe- rium Europa, led by Norman Lowell, garnered 2.7% of the vote, nearly overtaking the Greens as Malta's third party in the European elections. Yet since then, the Maltese far-right has failed to make any significant inroads and lacks a charismatic figure- head. But with no government at stake and an increased like- lihood of migrant arrivals in the next months, nothing can be excluded. Yet one drawback for the Maltese far-right is that their 'idol' in Italy, Matteo Salvini, is expecting Malta to accept more immigrants. This may act as a caution- ary tale on how the emer- gence of a far-right in Europe may actually make Malta more vulnerable to the influx of migrants from Africa. The Nationalist Party may also seek to capitalise on public opinion polls show- ing concern on migration is- sues, but Muscat's balancing acts and ability to play the strongman (for example with international NGOs who pick up migrants in the Med) in sensitive moments may neutralise these attempts. Muscat may also turn the table on the PN by pointing at the inertia of its European partners to support Malta's calls for burden sharing. As things stand, it is ex- tremely likely that the PN will try to milk the migra- tion issue and Muscat is al- so likely to play along, fully knowing that he can play a different tune to different audiences. For Muscat it may also be a welcome distraction from the corruption issue. But buoyed by economic growth, he is also likely to fight the election on local is- sues, which have nothing to do with the European issues. The elections may well be transformed in a referendum on whether Muscat should stay at the helm of the result. Yet, with no government at stake, voters who still dis- trust the PN but have reser- vations on various aspects of Muscat's policies, may also be tempted to abstain, vote third parties or even vote for PN candidates to clip his wings. These may also include vot- ers concerned with rising so- cial inequalities, corruption and environmental degrada- tion that do not feel repre- sented by either party. Will AD or the PD find the right candidates to tap in to this reserve of increasingly vocal but marginalised vot- ers? It remains highly unlike- ly that the third party vote will undermine the domi- nance of the two Maltese major parties that will most probably share the spoils with Labour having a greater chance of a fourth seat. NEWS Poland Poland will be a testing ground for the application of Article 6 against a mem- ber state. This could see the country losing voting rights due to infringements proce- dures related to the 'rule of law'. The right-wing Law and Justice party may turn the elections into a nationalist showdown with the commis- sion. The elections will be a major test for the main Op- position party; the pro-Eu- ropean Civic Platform which may be pivotal for Macron's plans for a new centrist alli- ance with more liberal mem- bers of the EPP. Italy Polls suggest that the right- wing anti-immigrant Lega may become the largest Ital- ian party surpassing the populist 5 Star Movement and displacing the EPP-allied Forza Italia, as the main party of the right. Both the centre- left Democratic Party and the centre-right Forza Italia are expected to lose seats, thus further weakening their re- spective moderate groups. On the far-left, a new political outfit called Potere al Popolo is already registering in the polls in an indication of a rad- icalisation of conflict. Spain An affirmation by the liberal Ciudadanos as Spain's first party, mostly at the cost of the Popular Party, may strength- en Marcon's European ambi- tions, which hinge either on joining the liberal ALDE or on creating a new group to at- tract elements from both the EPP and the Socialists. But a rebound of the Spanish So- cialists, led by Pedro Sanchez, who currently head a minor- ity government, can revitalise the Socialist group. Greece This may be a country where the EPP may recover lost ground from the hard-left, which was riding high on the crest of an anti-establishment insurgency in 2014 but had to accept drastic cuts in public expenditure to keep Greece in the Eurozone. But with the Greek economy showing signs of recovery, Syriza may fare better than expected. UK There will be no election in the UK because of Brexit but the absence of British MEPs will impact heavily on the composition of the European parliament. This will mainly penalise the Socialist Group which will lose British Labour MEPs. None of the British parties are represented in the EPP. The departure of UKIP from the European Parlia- ment will leave the Italian 5 Star Movement in search of new allies while the depar- ture of Tory MPs could mean the dismemberment of the Conservative and Reformist group. Nigel Farage will be a notable absence in the next parliament. Any further setback by the socialists at European level may prompt Muscat to explore new alliances, which may boost his European ambitions Alexis Tsipras Matteo Salvini Viktor Orban Sebastian Kurtz Jaroslaw Kaczynski