Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1002137
10 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 8 JULY 2018 JAMES DEBONO IN the first European elec- tions in Malta in 2004, vot- ers were invited to vote PN for the sheer reason that the European People's Party was the "largest group" inside the European Parliament. Com- ing out of the anti-European wilderness, the Labour Party was also keen on affirming its links with the Socialist group of which Joseph Muscat was a prominent MEP. But 15 years later Maltese MEPs may well wake up to a new reality where populist parties and new pan-Europe- an parties undermine the he- gemony of the two big group- ings. The forthcoming MEP elec- tions are likely to condition political debate on issues like migration for the coming months as anti-establishment and far-right movements are poised to make gains, further weakening the hold of the two main European families, namely the centre-left Social- ists and Democrats and the European People's Party. This is bound to make mainstream parties less likely to accept any changes, which may see them accept mi- grants from other countries. Also weighing on these elec- tions is talk of a new pan- European centrist alignment pushed by French President Emmanuel Macron, who may face a choice between joining the liberal ALDE or attempt to reshape European politics by forging alliances with par- ties currently represented in both EPP and the Socialists. Yet it remains doubtful whether an alignment of parties that pushed through austerity and de-regularised markets, is best placed to confront the rise of the far- right in Europe. Although Maltese MEPs have little numerical impact on the balance of power in the European parliament, Muscat enjoys clout as one of four serving Socialist prime ministers in a political land- scape which has shifted to the right. Any further setback by the socialists at European level may prompt Muscat to ex- plore new alliances, which may boost his European am- bitions. Muscat was keen on tweeting a photo with Span- ish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in last week's migra- tion summit. However, photographs with French President Emma- nuel Macron were also given prominence in official press releases. Muscat's decision to accept 230 migrants stranded on the Lifeline boat, may also have been influenced by the direct intervention of the French President in forging a coali- tion of the willing to redis- tribute migrants among eight European nations, apart from Malta. Muscat himself is well to the right of most of his European Socialist partners and could fit in a more centrist alliance which could have some of the hallmarks of the alliance of "moderates and progressives" Muscat crafted before the 2013 election. Can populists challenge EPP dominance? With the socialists braced for setbacks in France, Italy and Germany while losing the British contingent of Labour MEPs thanks to Brexit, the EPP is braced to remain the largest group even if they lose support to the far-right. But can they lose domi- nance if an alliance is forged between the various constel- lations of conservative, anti- establishment, right-wing and populist parties? One major problem is that, so far, attempts to group po- litical parties to the right of the EPP together have failed. Marine Le Pen's makeover of the National Front into the more moderate National Ral- ly may facilitate cooperation with conservative parties like the German AFD. Currently Marine Le Pen's Party is represented in the Europe of Nations and Free- dom (ENF) group along Mat- teo Salvini's Lega and the Austrian Freedom Party. But the German AFD, which may make major gains in forthcoming MEP elections, do not form part of the alli- ance and are considered to be economically neo-liberal in contrast to Le Pen's econom- ic populism. One major incognita is the destiny of the European Conservative and Reform- ist Group, which presently includes the British Tories along conservative national- ists in Poland and anti-immi- grant but mildly Eurosceptic parties in Sweden and Den- mark that shun any associa- tion with the cruder racism of the far-right. With the departure of the Tories due to Brexit, these parties may either seek new recruits, defect to a more conservative-friendly EPP or team up with the ENF group. The Italian 5 Star Move- ment currently allied to the British UKIP, votes with the left on most issues in the Eu- ropean Parliament with the NEWS How the populist storm is set to undermine PL and PN allies in Europe Key battlegrounds France An affirmation by Emma- nuel Macron's La République, En Marche, currently not a member of any parliamentary group, could upset the balance in the European parliament, paving the way for a new cen- trist alliance. The Socialists have been reduced to single digit scores and are trailing the greens and the far-left in polls. MEP elections will be a major test for Marine Le Pen's decision to rebrand her party as the National Rally in a bid to attract more moderate vot- ers who shunned the National Front. Germany German Chancellor Angela Merkel could face further trou- ble in state elections due in Bavaria in October where her CSU partner faces competition from the AFD (Alternative for Germany). Any further gains by the right-wing AFD party in MEP elections would further destabilise her fragile coalition and her leadership in Europe. The viability of a new right- wing group will depend on the willingness of the AFD to part- ner with the French National Rally led by Marine Le Pen. Hungary Victor Orban's Fidesz Party which is likely to retain its hold on voters may be tempted to leave the EPP party and join a new alliance of right-wing par- ties, thus further weakening the EPP in numerical terms. Austria Holding the EU presidency in the next six months, the Austrian government is in a position to thwart any agree- ment on migration. Austria, whose government includes the far-right People's Party, but is led by the EPP-aligned Sebastian Kurtz, may offer a taste of things to come, with the centre-right increasingly attracted by the prospect of appeasing the far-right to cling on to power. Nigel Farage Marine Le Pen Pedro Sanchez Angela Merkel