Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/829524
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 28 MAY 2017 14 News Turf wars in the LABOUR'S victory path passes through the following stages: re- taining as many switchers as pos- sible, compensating any losses among switchers and disgrun- tled Labourites by winning over enough PN voters doing well un- der this administration, and win- ning a majority of new voters. The PN's victory path passes through the following stages: recovering a significant number of switchers, winning back PN voters who ab- stained in 2013, winning a chunk of traditional Labour and AD vot- ers and keep the pace with Labour among new voters. Possible shifts in particular districts like Gozo could be an added bonus for the PN. New voters In 2013 there were 19,000 new voters who accounted for 6% of the general electorate. While many of these voters may vote according to family background, voters in this age group (18- to 21-year olds) may also have different aspirations and priorities than older voters. In view of the expansion of post secondary education and stipends, these voters, many of whom live in the home of their parents, may be less likely to vote on bread and butter issues and may be more lib- eral in outlook. In this sense Labour's social lib- eralism may sway some of these voters. This also explains the PN's dramatic shift from a party against divorce to a party in favour of gay marriage. The PN may have an edge in presenting itself as the an- ti-establishment party in this gen- eral election. The David vs Goliath factor may well work in the PN's favour, al- though Muscat's larger than life and macho image may strike a chord with another segment of new voters. Images and memes on the social media may also be more likely to capture the imagination of this group. This explains Labour's con- stant efforts to belittle the Opposi- tion leader, even if in some cases these backfired, as happened in a video uploaded by Forum Zghaz- agh Laburisti a couple of hours af- ter the University General Election Debate showing Simon Busuttil taking off his jacket and tie post- debate which went viral, gather- ing 130,000 views in just over 12 hours. But while PL supporters were sharing it to make fun of Simon Busuttil, PN supporters were shar- ing it saying it actually made their leader look cool. Moreover many of these voters are more likely to vividly recall the scandals of this administration rather than those of the previous one, which occurred in their teens. But these voters may still associate the PN with its conservative stance in the divorce referendum. Surveys so far show Labour hav- ing a small edge in this category but also show a high percentage of undecided and non-voters in this category. A high rate of abstention in this category may well reflect disen- chantment with the political sys- tem but also an anti-political cul- ture which may have flourished as rival parties engaged in a tit for tat with one scandal used to neutralise another. Switchers Retaining or recovering switch- ers – a label given to traditional PN voters who opted for Labour in 2013 – is of crucial importance for both major parties. This is why the PL has deployed former Nationalists like TV host Karl Stagno Navarra and candidate Ian Castaldi Paris. On the other hand the PN has in recent months paraded a number of role models for switchers returning back to the fold. Outspoken television personality Salvu Mallia's appeal was restrict- ed to the most angry segment of this category, many were alienated by his dose of divisive discourse. But the same cannot be said of Godfrey Farrugia, a former La- bour minister known for his gentle ways, or entrepreneur Claudine Cassar, who stood on the soapbox for Labour in 2013 and now has switched back to the PN. Yet recovering all switchers re- mains a very unlikely prospect for the PN, simply because some of these switchers may be happy with Labour's performance in the econ- omy while others may have even benefitted from Labour's policies in various areas. This means that for the PN to win it also needs to appeal to other categories, namely former PN voters who abstained in the 2013 election, AD voters and traditional Labour voters. PN voters who abstained in 2013 may be the easiest target, especial- ly since the party now has found a narrative and a rallying cry in the corruption issue. AD voters, especially those who voted PN prior to 2013, may be an- other easy target, especially in view of the public backing of former AD chairperson Michael Briguglio. However, traditional Labour vot- ers will be more difficult to catch in the net. The disgruntled Labourite Disgruntled Labourites can help the PN's prospect in two ways: by staying at home and, even more, by switching. If they stay at home they will simply deduct votes from La- bour's net. But if they switch, their vote will increase the PN's first count tally. One way of doing this is by enticing these voters to vote for the PN's junior coalition partners, the Democratic Party led by former Labour MP Marlene Farrugia. But it was former Labour min- ister and whip Godfrey Farrugia's candidature which may have been most effective in this sense, given his popularity among Labour vot- ers. Ultimately Labour also has a strong electoral machine and the power of incumbency to neutral- ise Farrugia's switch and recover these voters. The MaltaToday sur- vey has shown the number of La- bour non-voters declining over the past months while a small strategic category (some 3% of the PL's 2008 cohort) has shifted to the PN. But the Torca survey still showed 8% of Labour voters intent on not voting. But while disgruntled La- bourites may provide a path to a PN victory, one serious obstacle to this could be the happy Nationalist, that category of voters who prospered under Muscat. The happy Nationalist The PL may also be banking on compensating losses among switch- ers and disgruntled Labourites by some gains in the PN's 2013 cohort. Surveys show that these efforts are not entirely unsuccessful. Surveys show that between 2% and 4% of PN voters in 2013 have switched to Labour. By moving his party to the centre-right on economic issues while retaining a centre-left appeal on social issues, Muscat may be still banking on a small shift of Nation- alist voters coming to his rescue. Who are the most strategic categories of voters who can provide a path to victory to Labour or PN? JAMES DEBONO asks Young, new voters are more likely to vividly recall the scandals of this administration rather than those of the previous one, which occurred in their teens Switchers might find an alternative in the PD formation fronted by former Labour MPs Marlene Farrugia and Godfrey Farrugia Outspoken television personality Salvu Mallia's appeal has been restricted to the most angry segment of the switchers' category