Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/829524
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 28 MAY 2017 15 2017 election This may also include traditionally Nationalist-leaning categories who are benefitting from the construc- tion and property boom. The gay vote The MGRM estimates that 7% of the Maltese population is gay. But the gay vote is greater than the sum of gays, lesbians and transgender people. It also includes their fami- lies, friends and liberally minded heterosexuals. While in 2013 it was only AD who favoured gay marriage, in this election both ma- jor parties advocate full marriage equality. But Labour may be banking on resentment towards the PN's de- cision to abstain on civil unions in April 2014. The PL's identifica- tion with the gay community was further underlined by a speech by choreographer Felix Busuttil. But the PN have fielded Alex Mangion, Malta's first transgender candidate whose chief merit is that of not making a fuss of his gender identity and focusing on political issues. Hunters The hunting lobby has for the past years conditioned both ma- jor political parties. With the PN desperate to narrow the gap in rural districts in south-western Malta and Gozo, Busuttil made firm commitments to retain hunt- ing in spring. This may come as a double-edged sword for a party whose electorate backed the ban on spring hunting. Still probably this issue has been obscured by corruption. The PL has tried to exploit differences between Mar- lene Farrugia's Democratic Party and the PN on this issue and has hinted at reducing hunting fines in reply to Busuttil's announcement that he voted in favour of spring hunting. But beyond paying lip service to the lobby, the issue seems to have been defused in this election. Gozitans Gozo, where the PN has seen its vote share slump from 55% in 2008 to 50% in 2013 and Labour in- crease its share from 43% in 2008 to 49% in 2013, is considered to be a very strategic district which could determine the outcome of the next general election. Winning back a seat majority is also of great symbolic importance for the PN. While the PN won a slight majority of votes in Gozo it ended up winning two seats against Labour's three. While Labour may benefit from its power of incumbency and Gio- vanna Debono's fall from grace in view of a court case instituted against her husband in the works for votes scandal, the PN may ben- efit from disappointment at the lack of visible projects in Gozo, opposition to the privatisation of the island's hospital and the per- ceived rift between Labour strong- man Anton Refalo and other La- bour candidates. According to a MaltaToday sur- vey conducted in January the Na- tionalist Party enjoys a small two- point lead over the Labour Party in Gozo. The PN has aggressively targeted Gozitans, coming up with a spe- cific manifesto for the sister island which includes a promise to waive all property stamp duty for first- time buyers in Gozo and a €10,000 grant to young families who buy a house in Gozo. Labour has not won a majority of votes in any general election in the Gozo district since 1955 but came close in 2013 when it won the ma- jority of seats. Labour's support in general elec- tions between 1971 and 2008 had always hovered between 40% and 46%. With the notable exception of 1987, Labour always ended up winning the general elections when it secured more than 45% of the Gozitan vote, which has now grown to some 30,000. One factor favouring Labour is the power of incumbency, espe- cially after a first term in govern- ment. After being elected to power in 1987, it was the PN which man- aged to increase its majority in Go- zo by five percentage points from 1987 to 1992. But that was also thanks to an economic boom and the setting up of a Gozo Ministry led by Anton Tabone. Labour saw its share of the vote increase by 5% in the 1996 elec- tion. The premature fall of Alfred Sant's government saw the party losing three points in Gozo against four points nationally – an indica- tion that the party fared better in Gozo than in the rest of Malta. The 2003 election saw Labour losing a further two points, dip- ping to 40.8% – its worst result in Gozo since 1992. This corre- sponded with a strong affirmation of the 'Yes' vote in the EU refer- endum. The 2008 election saw no remarkable shift to Labour. In this election, Labour won 42.9% of the Gozitan vote – an increase of two percentage points over its 2003 tally. The PL's relative majority in the June 2009 MEP elections rep- resented the party's best result in Gozo since the 1955 general elec- tion. This was followed by Labour winning three seats out of five in the 2013 general election despite falling short of a majority of votes. The battle for the south and west In 2013 the PN suffered its worst results in the south and the west- ern part of Malta. In the south, the PL obtained four seats in the second, third, fourth and fifth dis- tricts. In former elections this was the case only in the second. Al- though the election is decided on first count votes and not seats, any PN recovery has to start in the La- bour heartlands in the south. This also indicates that switchers, often associated with middle class pale blue voters, also include working class and rural voters. This may also explain the direct pitch Simon Busuttil is making towards Labour voters in these localities. Joseph Muscat's decision to con- test the fifth district indicates that Labour's fourth seat in the district, consisting of Zurrieq, Birzebbu- gia, Kirkop and Mqabba is under threat. In 2013, the PN was some 300 votes away from securing two quotas and with Marlene Farrugia contesting the district on the PN ticket Labour could lose a seat. The third and fourth districts could also see the PN return to 2008 levels when it had won two seats on both districts. In 2013, the PN was 300 votes short of secur- ing two quotas in the fourth dis- trict while the third district could be the hardest for the PN as it was 800 votes short of two quotas. Recovering all switchers remains a very unlikely prospect for the PN, simply because there may be switchers who may be happy with Labour's performance in the economy The PL's identification with the gay community was further underlined by a speech by choreographer Felix Busuttil Ultimately Labour also has a strong electoral machine and the power of incumbency to neutralise Farrugia's switch and recover these voters