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10 Who are the undecided? The percentage of undecided and no re- plies in this week's survey (19%) is lower than the 26% registered in MaltaToday's surveys at the same stage before the 2013 general election. Prior to the March 2013 election, while 28% of undecided voters declared voting PN in 2008, only 17% of undecided voters declared voting PL in the last election. In fact while the survey showed the PL leading by 12 points, which tallied with the actual election result, the extrapola- tion of the result after removing don't knows showed the PL leading by a stagger- ing 16 points. This indicates that in the ac- tual election the undecided had shifted in greater numbers to the PN than towards the PL. The present survey suggests that while a relative majority of undecided had voted PL in 2013 (33.3% voted PL while 31% voted PN), a larger majority had voted PN in 2008. A breakdown of the undecided shows that only 15% of those who are now unde- cided had voted Labour in 2008 compared to 40% who had voted PN in 2008. But a further 14% of presently undecided voters consist of switchers who voted PN in 2008 and Labour in 2013. An additional 12% had not voted in 2013, nearly double the number of those who had not voted in 2008. A substantial 19% of undecided refused to reveal their previous voting re- cord. This suggests that undecided switchers and undecided non-voters in 2013 may hold the key on who gets Castille on June 3. And while the undecided in this survey leaned heavily towards the PN in 2008, a large segment of them had switched to La- bour in 2013. 6% of PL voters to vote PN The survey shows 6.3% of Labour voters (up from 5.7% last week) in 2013 shifting from the PL to the PN and 3.3% (up from 1.9% last week) of PN voters in 2013 shift- ing from the PN to the PL. In actual figures this would translate into the PL losing some 10,555 votes to the PN and the PN losing circa 4,370 votes to the PL over the 2013 election figures. The survey also shows the PL losing 1.6% of its 2013 voters to abstention compared to 0.3% lost by PN. If translated into actual votes this would translate in Labour losing 2,512 votes and the PN losing 794 votes. When losses to abstention and flows be- tween the two parties are taken into ac- count the PN is gaining 5,788 votes over 2013 and the PL losing 8,865 votes. This suggests that while the PN is gaining more votes than the PL, the shift is not enough to overturn Labour's majority. Moreover the PL is compensating some of its losses in the Labour cohort of voters by making some inroads into the PN's 2013 cohort of voters. But these figures do not factor in the in- flux of non-voters in previous elections, new voters and respondents who still claim to be undecided. The survey shows 10% of PL voters in 2013 undecided – the same as last week. This category is mainly composed of switchers who voted PN in 2008 and PL in 2013. In the switcher category 31% (two points up from last week) are undecided compared to only 5% of PL voters in 2008. The number of undecided among PN voters has gone up from 5% to 9% from last week. But this was matched by a three- point drop among PN voters in 2013 who would not reveal their voting intentions. This suggests that undecided switchers may have a key role in determining the re- sult on June 3. For the second time in the electoral cam- paign the survey shows the PN-PD coali- tion enjoying a small lead among switch- ers. But the survey also shows Muscat enjoying a small lead over Busuttil in this category. The survey only gives an indication of how non-voters and new voters will be voting on June 3 because the sample of these two strategic cohorts is too small. But the survey confirms the PN's advan- tage among non-voters in 2013 registered in previous surveys. Busuttil also enjoys a strong trust lead among this group. This suggests that the PN is recovering former voters who registered their protest by not voting in the 2013 general election. As regards new voters, the survey re- cords a drop in undecided among this group from 39% last week to 17% now. This week's survey shows the PN-PD coa- lition and the PL running neck and neck at 38% each. Margin of error can still impact result MaltaToday's latest survey was carried out among 850 respondents contacted be- tween Monday and Thursday. The survey has a margin of error of 3.5 points. This means that the difference between the two parties still lies within this mar- gin. The PN's result could be anywhere between 33.4% and 40.4% while the PL's result could be anywhere between 37.6% and 44.6%. This means that it is still possible that the PN could be in the lead. But this also means that Labour's lead could be even greater. Moreover Labour's lead has been consistent at between three and four points in five consecutive surveys. The survey still shows the Greens below the 1-point mark at 0.7%. The overall per- centage of respondents who would vote for PD candidates on the PN list stands at only 1.1% (down by 0.3 points from last week). But the percentage of small par- ties could also be heavily impacted by the margin of error. The same applies to po- litical parties who were not mentioned by respondents in this survey. Muscat retains 5-point lead Overall when asked who of the two lead- ers they trust most, 38.5% chose Busuttil while 43.3% chose Muscat. Compared to last week Busuttil has lost 0.7 points while Muscat has lost 0.6 points. Among Labour voters in 2013, Muscat has seen his trust rating rise from 73.7% before the start of the election campaign to 78.8% during the first week, to 85% in the second and third weeks of the cam- paign. But in this survey it falls back to 82% in this category. Busuttil has also lost two points in his trust rating among PN voters. The survey now shows Muscat trusted by 82% of PL voters in 2013 and Busuttil by 85% of PN voters in 2013. The percentage of Labour voters in 2013 who trust neither of the two leaders re- mains at 5% as it was last week. 4% of PN voters in 2013 trust neither leader. maltatoday, SUNDAY, 28 MAY 2017 MaltaToday Survey JAMES DEBONO 0.9pp 0.3pp 0.1 0pp -0.2pp 2pp -3.1pp CHANGE SINCE 21 MAY 2017 • *PD's vote included in PN vote 0.7% 0 2.2% 15% 4.1% AD Patriots Not voting Don't know No reply 41.1% 36.9% PL PN* For which political party would you vote if an election were held tomorrow? Labour still leads by four points, Muscat by five The survey shows 6.3% of Labour voters (up from 5.7% last week) in 2013 shifting from the PL to the PN and 3.3% (up from 1.9% last week) of PN voters in 2013 shifting from the PN to the PL